Although it is expected that the increase in oil prices brought about by political risks may dissipate at the end of the year, 22 analysts surveyed still raised the 2011 oil price forecast. Among them, the French Industrial Bank stated that if the turmoil in the Middle East increases, the oil price may reach 150 to 200 US dollars.

Daniel Nielsen, senior market strategist at GainCapitalForex.com, said: "The joint attack is the latest example of this type of price pressure. It may allow the oil price test to reach a new high, causing Brent and U.S. crude oil to go up to $118.42 per barrel last week. At US$106.95, under the pressure from the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, it is unlikely that oil prices will continue to decline.”

According to the survey, the average price of Brent crude oil this year is expected to be US$104.57 per barrel, which is higher than the US$92.50 that was collected from the February survey. The price is expected to be $103.22 in 2012 and $106.85 in 2013. The average 2011 US crude oil price is expected to be US$96.73 per barrel, which is higher than the February forecast of US$89.96. The price for 2012 is expected to be US$97.72 and for 2013 it is US$102.94.

The Societe Generale team predicts that from the current $115/bbl price of Brent crude, there is an increase in geopolitical risk from $15 to $20. "In our main scenario scenario, the Middle East and North Africa turmoil will continue to The oil market is uneasy, but with the exception of Libya, there is no other supply disruption. This should restrain the Brent oil price and it will not be much higher than 125 US dollars. It will also allow the global economy to maintain strong growth for the rest of 2011. ."

However, the bank warned that the turmoil in Saudi Arabia may allow oil prices to soar to 150 to 200 US dollars per barrel.

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