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According to Everbright Securities statistics, 92 pharmaceutical listed companies' operating data for the period from January to September 2008 showed that sales revenue of pharmaceutical listed companies increased by 13.8% (from January to June was 19.6%). The decrease in revenue growth was mainly due to the merger of Guangzhou Pharmaceutical. Changes in the statement adjustment caliber, if this factor is removed, the income growth rate is 20.5%. From the profit point of view, from January to September, the total profit of the pharmaceutical industry increased by 35.7%, and the net profit increased by 41% (41.7% and 46.1% in January-June, respectively). The slowdown in earnings growth was mainly due to the second half of the year. Higher. On the whole, the pharmaceutical industry maintained a relatively high growth rate in revenue and earnings from January to September, which was in line with market expectations. In 2008, the pharmaceutical industry maintained its high growth throughout the year.
It is expected that the industry's earnings will increase by 35-38% in 2008, and maintain the "overweight" rating:
From the fundamentals, the three quarterly report data establishes the year 2008 high growth trend of the pharmaceutical industry. We expect the pharmaceutical industry revenue in 2008 to grow 18-20%, net profit growth of 35-38%. For the judgment in 2009, we think it is necessary to adjust the “medical reform†expectation, from optimism to cautious optimism. Reviewing the recovery growth of the pharmaceutical industry in 2007 and maintaining high growth in 2008, the biggest basic factor is the expansion of demand and the vacuum of policies. However, with the deepening of the “new medical reform†in 2009, the introduction of measures such as drug price reforms, the national essential medicine system, and the establishment of basic medical institutions, changes in the demand structure of end-use medicines are likely to lead to uncertainties in the profit model and earnings growth of some enterprises. . We expect that the decline in profit growth in the pharmaceutical industry in 2009 is a high probability event (high base in 2008 + uncertainty due to industry changes). It is expected that the pharmaceutical industry revenue in 2009 will maintain 18% growth, and profit growth is expected to be 25% or slightly. Low (excluding bulk drug companies). It is expected that the fall in profit growth of API companies will slow the overall profit growth of the pharmaceutical industry in 2009 (it is expected to be 15% or slightly lower).
From the perspective of market performance and valuation, the pharmaceutical industry has consistently outperformed the market since the beginning of the year, showing a good defensive character. The current dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry in 2008 pe18x, 09 dynamic pe16x, from the perspective of profit growth and absolute valuation, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is basically reasonable. From the perspective of relative valuation, the relative premium level of the pharmaceutical industry and the CSI 300 is always above 50%, which also reflects the defensive premium given by the market to the pharmaceutical industry during the market downturn. Based on the judgment of fundamentals and valuation, we believe that the growth of the pharmaceutical industry within the next 3-6 months is still the clearest and best defensive category. Therefore, we maintain the “overweight†rating of the pharmaceutical industry. The risks we need to pay attention to are: short-term correction brought by too much valuation premium (which has occurred many times in the past 6 months); the growth rate of industry earnings in 2009 has fallen more than expected, and the stimulating effect of “medical reform†has been decreasing.