Overcapacity leads to continued decline in profitability

The reporter learned that the above nine departments are the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Supervision, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the People's Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, the National Energy Administration and other departments.

The "Notice" pointed out that in recent years, the contradiction between China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity surplus and supply exceeding demand has been very prominent, resulting in a significant decline in corporate profitability.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 23 million tons in 2010, and the actual output of that year was only 15.6 million tons, and the production capacity was in excess. From January to November 2010, the profits of the aluminum smelting industry were 10.441 billion yuan, and the sales margin was only 3.59%, which was much lower than the average level in the industrial sector.

This year's situation has further deteriorated. “In January-February, the profits of the aluminum smelting industry decreased by 41.8% year-on-year. The sales margin was only 3.4%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year,” Zhu Hongren, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out on the 20th.

Li Defeng, Director of Aluminum Department of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association believes that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the supply of electrolytic aluminum industry is relatively surplus. With the gradual increase of average social cost, the profitability of the whole industry will continue to decline, and the electrolytic aluminum industry has entered. The "marginal effect era" of fierce competition.

Over 7 million tons of affected production capacity

Zhu Hongren also stated that the electrolytic aluminum industry itself is a high-energy-consuming, high-emission, resource-based industry. The production of one ton of electrolytic aluminum consumes 14,000 to 15,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity. Unorderly development will further increase the pressure on resources and the environment, and will not be conducive to the sustained and healthy development of the industry.

To this end, the Nine Department requested that from the date of the “Notice” be issued, all localities should immediately halt the proposed construction of electrolytic aluminum projects and resolutely stop any violations of the approval of new production projects.

This means that more than 7 million tons of production capacity will be affected. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that at present, there are 23 electrolytic aluminum projects to be built across the country, with a total size of 7.74 million tons and a total investment of 77 billion yuan.

The "Notice" made it clear that for the electrolytic aluminum project to be built in violation of the regulations, the competent department will immediately stop the procedures for approval of land use, environmental impact assessment, power supply and new credit extension; the various preferential policies issued by local governments will also be abolished.

CITIC Securities believes that although the pattern of overcapacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry cannot be substantially improved before the end of 2012, in the short term, the supply and demand relationship of domestic electrolytic aluminum is still relatively tight, and aluminum prices will be supported by strong consumption and energy-saving and emission reduction effects, plus electrolysis. Aluminum production capacity is expected to control, the aluminum sector is expected to have staged investment opportunities.

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