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After the popularity of passenger car sales in 2009, the performance of commercial vehicles in 2010 may be even more eye-catching than passenger cars! In the first quarter of this year, regardless of whether heavy trucks, light trucks, or large and medium-sized passenger vehicles, the production and sales data of commercial vehicles have shown signs of “a strong recoveryâ€. According to statistics, the sales volume of commercial vehicles in the first quarter was 1,087,000, a year-on-year growth rate of 59.2%. Industry analysts believe that as the accelerated economic recovery has stimulated the optimistic expectations of downstream distributors, coupled with the need for some restocking, the commercial vehicle sales season has arrived ahead of schedule. In addition, since the end of last year, with the start of a number of infrastructure projects in various provinces, the demand for logistics has greatly increased, which has resulted in the strong sales of the heavy truck market. Demand for commercial vehicles has been exceedingly strong.
The commercial vehicle market is showing signs of recovery in the first quarter and is expected to grow by 30% this year
Overcoming the impact of the global financial crisis, in 2009, China's commercial vehicle market, like passenger cars, has achieved significant growth. The annual sales volume reached 331,000 units, an increase of 26.2%. Among them, passenger car sales (including non-integrated vehicles) increased by 3.95%; sales of trucks (including non-integrated vehicles) increased by 34.33% year-on-year; sales of semi-trailer tractors increased by 6.61% and 8.73% respectively.
Judging from the sales trend in the past five years, the commercial vehicle market has maintained an overall upward trend. Among trucks, light trucks account for the largest market share, while passenger buses are dominated by light buses. A large part of this increase comes from this.
Overall sales of commercial vehicles during 2005-2009
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
The commercial vehicle market has started to rise since the second half of 2009. It has hit a new monthly high since the first quarter of 2010. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that commercial vehicle sales in January totaled 348,000 vehicles, an increase of 177.0% year-on-year, including heavy trucks. The increase was 411.7%. In February, the sales volume was 269,000 units, an increase of 22.3% year-on-year. In March, the sales of commercial vehicles were 470,000 units, an increase of 75.0% from the previous month and an increase of 39.0% year-on-year.
Taken together, the sales volume of commercial vehicles in the first quarter of 2010 was 1,087,000, a year-on-year growth rate of 59.2%. Among these figures, some uncertain factors are revealed. The dramatic growth of trucks is due in part to the low base last year and the negative growth caused by them, while the growth of passenger cars is weak.
According to the data analysis, the recovery of the commercial vehicle market benefited from the continuing domestic macroeconomic conditions. The national economy continued to improve in the first quarter, and GDP was expected to reach 11%. A large amount of investment and construction entered the construction phase, driving the sales of civil-type trucks. The rapid economic growth has boosted the demand for car purchases. Take semitrailer tractors as an example. In March, the sales volume was 37,000 units, which was more than double the number of the same period of the previous year. The sales from January to March increased by 5.30 times year-on-year, and the demand growth was strong.
In addition, the strong sales of commercial vehicle products benefited from the combined effects of product upgrading, continued benefit from policies, and export recovery. At the end of 2009, the state has increased the amount of subsidies for vehicle replacement, of which the standard for the retirement of light trucks has increased from 5,000 yuan to 9,000 yuan. With the recovery of the domestic economy, sales growth of high-end light truck products will exceed the industry average speed of 15%.
According to forecasts from commercial vehicle dealers in the terminal market, the market for commercial vehicles will increase by more than 30% this year.
New and old battles "Four big four small" full competition in the field of commercial vehicles
In the “Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Planâ€, FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC, and Chang’an are listed as companies that encourage mergers and acquisitions across the country. BAIC, GAC, CNHTC and Chery are listed as companies that support the implementation of regional mergers and acquisitions. The industry vividly described them as "four big four small." With the participation of Chery's Jirui Heavy Industry announced that it will formally enter the heavy truck market this year, the competition of these eight companies in the commercial vehicle field is fully launched. It can be expected that after the passenger car market, China's commercial vehicle market will also be staged a show of heroes.
Opportunities and challenges coexist The factors affecting the 2010 commercial vehicle industry
From the commercial vehicle market environment analysis in 2010, the favorable factors mainly include the following aspects:
The first is to continue the policy of encouraging automobile consumption. Cars are extended to the countryside by the end of 2010; subsidies for automobile trade-in policies have been increased to 5,000 to 18,000 yuan; pilot cities for the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles have been expanded from 13 to 20, and 5 cities have been selected for private purchase of energy-saving and new energy sources. The subsidy pilot project is provided by the automobile; the key cities promote the replacement of yellow-labeled vehicles.
Second, the macroeconomic situation is improving. The UN (Department of Economic and Social Affairs) predicts that the world economy will start to go out of recession. In 2010, the economies of various countries will begin to recover slowly, GDP will continue to grow, the United States will have 2.1%, the EU will have 0.6%, Japan will have 0.9%, and China and India will be 8.8%, 9.0%.
The third is the high-speed popularization of automobiles. Per capita GDP in 2010 will reach 4,000 US dollars. According to the history of the international auto market, the per capita cost exceeds 3,000 U.S. dollars and it will enter the high-speed popularization stage of the automobile. At the same time, the opening of buses through villages and villages will promote bus demand.
Fourth, the auto export market is picking up. Six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of China's Automobile Products Exports". The specific policies will be introduced. At the same time, the global economy is picking up and demand for commercial vehicles in China is picking up.
The fifth is investment in the pull of commercial vehicles.
In 2010 and 2011, it was a peak period of 4 trillion yuan in investment and construction. But at the same time, the influence of unfavorable factors cannot be ignored:
The first is the declining policy effect of autos going to the countryside and fuel tax reforms, and some of the future demand will be released in advance in 2009.
Followed by environmental policy pressure. The type approval of light vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles will be implemented on July 1, 2010 and January 1, 2010, respectively, and the fourth-phase emission control requirements for the above-mentioned standards will be implemented. The State Three announcement will stop reporting, and the environmental protection and vehicle management departments will Increase the inspection of the environmental protection of vehicles.
Once again, vehicle production costs are under pressure, and prices of raw materials such as steel may rise.
In addition, the passenger flow of the highway was diverted by the railway, and the EMU dedicated line opened to divert the passenger transportation market. As the economy picks up, the price of oil may increase further. At the same time, with the full supply of China National Petroleum, the price of oil will rise slightly.
The sharp increase in domestic sales in 2009 masked the impact of the decline in exports. With the gradual recovery of the world economy, exports will recover in 2010. Due to the inertia of the market and the trade-in policy of the automobile replacement, the growth rate of the commercial vehicle market in the first half of 2010 will be greater than the growth rate in the second half of the year.
"Four big and four small" competitive advantages in the field of commercial vehicles and the development process at a glance
enterprise
Segment industry
Competitive advantage and development process
FAW
Heavy truck
FAW Liberation has a strong competitive edge in the medium- and heavy-duty truck field. The "bearer" was a liberation J6 heavy truck that won the first prize for national science and technology progress. This heavy truck that combines domestic and international advantageous resources is China FAW's 6th generation heavy truck and has now become the main force in the heavy truck market. In contrast, China FAW's competitiveness in the field of passenger cars, light trucks and micro cards is slightly inferior.
Light truck
In 2009, China FAW injected its light truck resources into a joint venture with General Motors of the United States, hoping to introduce the advanced management and production concepts of the United States, so as to make the competitiveness of light trucks even higher. However, the current results have not yet appeared.
Micro card
In terms of micro-cards, FAW Jilin Company is undergoing large-scale technological transformation and is preparing to put into production new models.
bus
FAW Bus Company was once the only professional chassis manufacturer in China. As more and more mainstream passenger vehicle manufacturers gain chassis qualification, the company’s product market competitiveness has dropped significantly. The Costa Series passenger car jointly produced by China FAW and Toyota Corporation is the best-selling vehicle in China's commercial vehicle market.
Dongfeng
Heavy truck
After years of development, Dongfeng Motor Company has a strong competitive edge in light trucks, mid-cards, and heavy trucks. As early as 1996, Dongfeng Motor Company had a joint venture with Cummins Inc. to produce high-power diesel engines suitable for trucks and buses. The good performance of the Cummins engine has added competitive weight to Dongfeng’s trucks and buses. After the introduction of heavy truck engine technology from Renault, the competitiveness of Dongfeng Tianlong, Tianjin series and heavy trucks is also in the leading position in the industry.
Light truck
Dongfeng light truck sales remained the top three in the industry for many years. In 2009, the introduction of the Nissan technology Capstone light trucks further broadened the Dongfeng product line to enable it to capture the high-end light truck market.
bus
In the past two years, Dongfeng Motor Company has increased its investment in passenger car business and achieved certain progress, but there is still a certain gap compared with the industry leader.
SAIC
Passenger cars, micro cards
Unlike FAW and Dongfeng, SAIC Motor Co., Ltd. has accumulated little in the commercial vehicle sector. Before Shangnan cooperation, SAIC had only two specialized commercial vehicle manufacturers, Shanghai Shenwo and Shanghai Huizhong. Although SAIC-GM-Wuling produced some micro-cards, its production and sales volume is far below the micro-level.
Heavy Truck
In 2006, SAIC and Iveco of Italy established a joint investment company to cooperate with Iveco to enter the heavy truck field. Since then, the company has successively established a joint venture of heavy truck manufacturing company SAIC Iveco Hongyan and a high-power engine manufacturer SAIC Fiat Hongyan to enter the domestic heavy-duty truck and heavy-duty engine market.
Light trucks, light passengers
Through the acquisition of Nanjing Auto, SAIC Motors will bring Nanjing Iveco to the bag. The latter's Yuejin light trucks, Iveco light trucks and light passengers have certain competitiveness in the domestic market.
Chang'an
Micro card
China Changan Automobile Group Co., Ltd. is in the leading position in China's micro-card market. After the reorganization of AVIC in 2009, the micro-cards from Hafei and Changhe further enhanced their competitiveness.
Light trucks, light passengers
In other segments of commercial vehicles, Changan’s strength is weak. In 2005, the company brought Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd. under the control of Jiangling Holdings, which brought JMC T-series pickups and N-series light trucks, and Ford Transit.
Heavy Truck
Changan Automobile has established Taiyuan Changan Heavy-duty Truck Company through the reorganization of local companies and formally entered the heavy-duty truck manufacturing industry. Overall, Chang'an's commercial vehicle business is still in its infancy.
Beiqi
Light trucks, medium trucks, heavy trucks, passenger cars
In the planning of Beiqi Group, Foton Motor is a commercial vehicle production base. In the past 10 years, the development speed of Foton Motors was rare in the same industry, and it did not assume the expectation that in 2009, it would become the world’s largest commercial vehicle manufacturer with a production and sales volume of 600,000 units. Foton Motor currently has several production bases in Huairou, Changping and Zhucheng, Shandong Provinces, and its product lines cover light, medium-duty, heavy-duty trucks, passenger cars and new energy vehicles.
Heavy Truck
In order to solve the bottleneck of the next step, Foton Motor and German Daimler AG reached a joint venture agreement to produce heavy trucks. Based on the retention of the Fuman Auman brand, the company borrowed technology from Germany to develop next-generation products.
Guangzhou Automobile
bus
It is not too late for Guangzhou Automobile Group to enter the commercial vehicle sector. In 2000, Guangzhou Automobile Group and Japan Isuzu jointly established Guangzhou Isuzu Bus Co., Ltd. Due to poor operating performance, the Isuzu side withdrew its funds in 2008. In 2000, GAC also established Guangzhou Denway Bus Co., Ltd., which was listed in Hong Kong, but its development speed could not be compared with mainstream bus companies such as Yutong. In September 2008, GAC Group merged the two companies into a new bus company.
Heavy truck, light truck
In 2009, the group formed a joint venture with Hino and reorganized the former Shen Fei Hino Company. Through the introduction of Hino technology, Guangzhou Automobile has the production capacity of heavy trucks and light trucks, and Hino Bus has also formed a good complement to its own brand bus.
Heavy Duty Truck
Heavy Truck
China National Heavy-duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. is the only company in the “Four Big Four, Small and Medium,†which only produces commercial vehicles. After the reorganization was completed in 2001, Sinotruck has regained its vitality and achieved extraordinary development in the past nine years. In 2009, the company produced more than 120,000 heavy trucks and became the third largest heavy truck manufacturer in the world. In order to achieve better development, the company signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement with the German company, and introduced the latter's advanced engine, cab, and axle technology. At present, the Judeka T7 with the Man D20 engine has been officially launched.
Cards, buses, special vehicles
In addition, China National Heavy Duty Trucks also actively deployed in the field of medium-duty trucks, passenger cars and special vehicles, and tried to further expand the product line of commercial vehicles.
Chery
Heavy Truck
Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. is the last company to enter the commercial vehicle field in the "Four Big Four, Four Small". Jirui Joint Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., a joint venture between Chery Automobile and CIMC, will complete the construction of the company in the early stage this year and formally put into production. Since CIMC needs a large number of heavy trucks each year, choosing CIMC as a partner made it difficult for Chery Automobile to enter the heavy truck market, laying a good foundation for the early development of its commercial vehicle business.