China, Japan and South Korea's power battery robbing battle is already open, and who will swallow the 100 billion market

Recently, according to foreign media reports, with the retreat of China's new energy vehicle subsidies, South Korean battery manufacturers are increasing investment in China. The Ningde era after the "Lightning" in April will officially be listed on the ChiNext in May. It is estimated that after the listing in the Ningde era, its market value may exceed 300 billion yuan, becoming the largest stock of the GEM. The unicorn in China’s battery industry has just stood, and Korean battery companies are ready to make preparations for the Chinese market for new energy vehicles in 2020.

Different from the huge disparity in the strength of the battery industry between China, Japan and Korea three years ago, this time Japan and South Korea battery companies once again launched an offensive against the Chinese power battery market, China's power battery industry has been "resistance" - will be listed on the GEM. Ningde times.

Birth of a battery "Unicorn"

The Ningde era was established in December 2011. In just 7 years, it has grown into the largest global battery sales company (2017), surpassing Panasonic Electronics, which has 100 years of history and Tesla's only power battery supplier. 70-year-old LG Chemical.

Last year, the global automotive power lithium battery production 69GWh, Chinese companies contributed 44.5GWh, accounting for 64.5%. Among them, the Ningde era sales of 12GWh, ranked first in the world, and accounted for 17% of the world's total sales of power batteries, accounting for China's new energy vehicles last year, the battery installed capacity of 36.27Gwh 30%. According to public information, in January 2016, the valuation of Ningde was 1.5 billion, and by July it had risen to 23 billion, and by November it had reached 81 billion yuan.

Behind the rapid development and the scale of “flying into the sky”, this private enterprise in China is full of mystery. From the time of the establishment of the Ningde era and the release time of China's new energy automobile policy, the Ningde era has been on the rise, and it is behind this policy that it is a strong promoter.

Since 2009, the Chinese government has clearly defined the route for the development of the new energy automotive industry. Therefore, the establishment of the Ningde era officially responded to the country's call for the development of a new energy automobile industry. The policy's tremendous driving effect on the Ningde era was fully demonstrated in 2016.

Behind the rapid “expansion” of the Ningde era, formally originated on March 24, 2016, the "Automotive Battery Industry Specification" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. This policy stipulates that the new energy vehicle promotion catalogue is bundled with the “Automotive Battery Industry Specification”, that is, new energy automotive products that do not use the battery in the catalog will not enter the new energy vehicle promotion catalog from May 1 of that year. Unable to get policy subsidies.

Among the several batches of battery companies that were announced in succession, Samsung, LG and other foreign battery companies were not included. Under the guidance of the policy, new energy auto companies have interrupted the purchase of foreign power batteries and instead have purchased products from Chinese power battery companies that have entered the catalogue. Therefore, with the help of policies, the best time for the Ningde era to take off. In January 2016, the valuation in the Ningde era was only RMB 1.5 billion. In just 10 months, its valuation has doubled 54 times to reach RMB 81 billion in November 2016.

At present, the Ningde era has signed long-term cooperation agreements with large domestic vehicle companies such as Yutong, SAIC, Beiqi, Geely, Fuqi, China Vehicle, Dongfeng and Chang'an. Among the joint ventures, the Ningde era also entered the supply system of BMW and Volkswagen. After listing on the GEM in May this year, its market value is expected to exceed 300 billion. At this point, the Ningde era will complete its mythical growth market.

China, Japan and South Korea power battery robbing battle is open

The time-to-market for the Ningde era was “just as it was”. Because the protection of policies always has deadlines, this time is exactly when the subsidy for new energy vehicles will completely fall in 2020. In addition, driven by the double-entry policy for new energy vehicles, the 2020 joint venture will also start a large number of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market. With subsidies completely eliminated and new energy vehicles entering the stage of marketization, the power battery industry will also enter fair market competition.

According to the plan, in 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 2 million, and the number of vehicles will reach 5 million. According to industry forecasts, the demand for power batteries will reach 100GWh in 2020, and the corresponding market size will exceed 100 billion. Under the conditions of both the demand and the market, Japan and South Korea's power battery companies will obviously not miss the opportunity to grab the world's largest power battery market for new energy vehicles.

"South Korean battery makers are accepting inquiries from automakers." A South Korean battery company executive said, "This is because, as China's electric vehicle subsidy policy will end in 2019, auto makers need to do a good job for their new models." ready."

In the new energy auto market, which is fully market-oriented in 2020, more competitive products are the key to auto companies looting the market. Therefore, the leading Japanese and Korean power batteries will once again attract the attention of car companies.

As early as 2015, South Korea's Samsung, LG and SK three major battery manufacturers have invested in the establishment of factories in China, to provide power batteries for SAIC, Beijing Auto and other car companies. In order to meet the needs of the Chinese market in 2020, Korea SK changed SK Battery China Holdings to “SK Blue Dragon Energy” and invested 86.4 billion won. Samsung SDI also announced that it will invest 239.4 billion won to establish a battery material production joint venture in China.

In addition, in March of this year, Panasonic's "New Energy Special Square Lithium Battery Factory" in Dalian, China was formally put into production, and its annual production capacity could meet the demand for 200,000 new energy vehicles. Earlier this year, Panasonic said it was considering establishing a super battery plant with Tesla in China.

Of course, in the face of competition from foreign companies, China's power battery companies are also actively expanding their capacity to prepare sufficient "ammunition" for the upcoming "war." Among them, the Ningde Times plans to raise 13.1 billion yuan from listing funds, and 8.9 billion yuan will be used to build a new plant with a capacity of 24GWh. By 2020, it will reach a total capacity of 50GWh, accounting for half of the market demand in 2020.

Technical dispute

From the perspective of volume, whether it is Japan's Panasonic, South Korea's Samsung, LG or SK, and China's Ningde era, the future can not meet the huge market demand. With Japan and South Korea's battery companies investing in the Chinese market, the future of the power battery industry Ningde era will no longer exist, the contest between several giants or quietly began this year, and this competition is more behind The competition for technical strength.

From the scale, production, sales and market value of the company, China's Ningde era has been comparable to Japan's Panasonic, South Korea's LG, Samsung, and even more than competitors. Therefore, under the condition that the strength of the company is not much different, technology will become the focus of competition in a market-based competitive environment.

The level of power battery technology is directly reflected in the new energy vehicles as the length of life. At present, China's new energy vehicle market has a cruising range of 150-199km, more than half of the total, and only 10 models have a range of more than 400km.

According to the latest technology displayed by Samsung at the Frankfurt Auto Show last year, the vehicle's range for the installation of 20 battery modules can reach 600-700 kilometers, and the range for the installation of 10 to 12 battery modules can reach 300 kilometers. South Korea SKI began mass production of NCM811 battery last year, the cruising range can reach 500km, and the new battery developed in 2020 is expected to reach a mileage of 700km. The Ningde era in China is developing new products with an energy density of 300Wh/Kg, and it is expected that the cruising range will exceed 600 kilometers.

Driven by the new energy automotive industry, battery companies are also constantly upgrading the technology research and development of power batteries. In terms of technology research and development, the development of Chinese battery companies in recent years has been commensurate with that of Japanese and Korean companies. However, Professor Chen Quanshi, professor of automotive engineering and director of the electric vehicle research department at Tsinghua University, said: “In the Ningde era of technology research and development, it is no weaker than Japanese and Korean companies, but there are still Japanese and Korean battery companies in terms of process precision and production consistency. gap."

It is undeniable that under the protection of policies, China's power battery industry has made significant progress in scale and technology, narrowing the gap with international battery technology levels. As the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles degrades, China’s power battery companies will re-evolve with the international battery companies to compete in the same starting line. Whether the current Chinese power battery industry will replace the Chinese automobile industry "Provide a strong "Chinese core"?