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At the end of the year, the hottest topic in the truck industry is the outlook and forecast for the new year truck market. So, after experiencing the Great Depression in 2012, where will the truck market go in 2013? The basic judgment based on the combination of various data and various opinions is that 2013 is a year of steady growth for trucks.
Truck Market Overview in 2012
Before looking ahead to the truck market in 2013, let us review the overview of the truck market in 2012. This is a logical premise for making reasonable predictions. Since the data for December last year has not been released, only data from January to November can be cited at present. From January to November, China's truck market (including non-integrated vehicles, semi-trailer tractors) sales fell 8.1% year-on-year to 300.46 million vehicles. Among them, light trucks still occupy half of the country, with a share of 55.8%, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year. The share of heavy trucks dropped sharply, down 5.7% year-on-year to 19.5%. From January to November, heavy truck sales fell by 28.9% year-on-year to 582,200 units. Compared with heavy trucks, sales of light trucks fell slightly, down 3.3% year-on-year to 1.766,300 units.
Multiple positive security growth in heavy trucks
Throughout 2012, heavy truck companies ushered in the year 2013 that saw the dawn. In China, medium- and heavy-duty trucks have been regarded as “barometers and indicators of the national economyâ€. The major reasons for the sharp decline in heavy-duty truck sales in 2012 were economic reasons such as slower GDP growth and slower investment. In 2013, these were not. The factors that favor the sales of medium and heavy trucks have ebbed.
Well-known financial commentator Ye Tan concluded that macroeconomic data for 2013 will be better than 2012. She believes that the plight of the real economy in 2012 prompted policy makers to once again turn to investment. In the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2012, relevant work has been brewed and started. In December of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved hundreds of major projects that were approved in one month; in November, a total of 17 projects were approved; in October, 75 applications were approved. Project; 147 projects were approved in September. Although there are many key investment areas in the project, there is only one goal: urbanization. The first draft of the "Plan for Promoting the Healthy Development of Urbanization (2011-2020)" led by the National Development and Reform Commission was completed and it was stated that "urbanization will drive 40 trillion investment in the next decade." As a result, local governments also scrambled to set off an investment boom. After July 2012, according to incomplete statistics, 13 provinces and cities have issued large-scale economic stimulus plans or steady growth measures, involving an amount of more than 10 trillion yuan. Among them, the investment plans in Guangdong, Tianjin, Shanxi, Chongqing, Fujian and Guizhou exceeded RMB 1 trillion. After the ferocious investment boom has swept, its effect will surely become apparent in 2013. Therefore, macroeconomic data including GDP growth in 2013 was better than 2012, and it can basically be determined. In addition, the government investment tide has boosted the confidence of more investors. The current round of investment growth is in the ascendant. These investments involving rail transit, real estate, the transformation of old cities, and urbanization increased the demand for medium- and heavy-duty trucks, thereby increasing the sales of medium- and heavy-duty trucks in 2013.
In addition to the favorable macroeconomic growth and investment growth, the mid- and heavy-duty truck market in 2013 will also usher in a new peak year. The deputy secretary-general of the Federation of Travel Unions and the secretary of the Commercial Vehicles Club of the Federation of Trade Unions Yang Zaiyu wrote that from 2007 to 2010, sales of more than one million vehicles each year determined that the number of heavy trucks to be updated in 2013 is quite large. Pull 5% increase. As for the total sales of medium- and heavy-duty trucks in 2013, Yang Zaiyu believes that it is between 755,000 and 855,000 vehicles.
Member of the National Automobile Standardization Technical Committee and AQSIQ recalled expert Tan Xiuqing’s judgment on the 2013 situation in the medium and heavy truck market was slightly more pessimistic than Yang Zai’e. He believes that sales of medium- and heavy-duty trucks in 2013 will fall between 5% year-on-year and 10% year-on-year, according to which the total sales volume of medium and heavy trucks will not exceed 700,000 vehicles. Although Tan Xiuqing believes that the macroeconomic situation in 2013 will be better than in 2012, the number of trucks in 2012 has reached a record high, reaching more than 5 million vehicles, many of which are heavy trucks and have not been able to find business in the past two years. Even though the macroeconomic situation has improved in 2013, it is only a slight increase in market demand based on the mobilization of already-owned trucks.
Light truck is upgraded
Sales of light trucks are relatively stable relative to medium and heavy trucks, but they are also affected by the macroeconomic situation. In 2012, total sales volume of light trucks fell by 3.3%. This year, with the macro economy, sales volume should increase.
Yang Zaiyu said that the incremental structure of China's light trucks has undergone significant changes. Light trucks are moving toward high-tech, new materials, lightweighting, digitization, intelligence, comfort, diversification of functions, passenger car interiors and humanization. It is characterized by low noise, safety, reliability, durability, easy maintenance, low energy consumption, versatility and availability of new energy. In the power configuration and vehicle body design, wide cab, long body, reinforced chassis, large power, high-speed heavy load will become the trend of light truck development and mainstream products. This must have performed in the light truck market in 2013.
Wang Guangyu, general manager of the spare parts service company of Jianghuai Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. and director of the network management department, also believes that the light truck market will grow steadily in 2013, but the market will shift from sales to upgrade.
From the perspective of transportation distance, light trucks are mainly used for short-distance transportation within a radius of 500 kilometers. As a short-distance transportation tool, light trucks will benefit from the development of urbanization rates, rural and urban residents' income increase, road network expansion and other development dividends. Therefore, the sales volume of China's light trucks will have broad room for growth in the foreseeable future, including 2013.
Export or reduction of trucks
In 2012, when the East did not shine brightly in the West, truck companies afflicted in the domestic market turned their attention to overseas markets and achieved impressive export performance. However, Tan Xiuqing believes that China's truck exports will certainly not be better than last year. The reasons are as follows: First, the international economic situation is still grim, Europe has not yet shaken off the debt crisis, the US economy has not yet improved, the Japanese economy is still stagnant, emerging market The slowdown in the country’s economic growth has caused a sluggish demand for trucks in the international market. Second, China’s exports of trucks were relatively large last year. Exportable markets have become saturated this year, and it is still difficult to explore new sales markets. Third, maintenance services Last year's failure to keep pace with this year's truck company's main task this year was to make up for the shortfall instead of continuing to expand.