Pirates of the dream car market from blind optimism to cautious adjustment

“Do you understand how you came from?” This is a line from the earlier hot-blooded film Pirates of the Dream, meaning that if you can't explain how you came from, then you are most likely In dreams, the only way to distinguish dreams from real ones is “constant”—the personal belongings of the dreamer. After several years of frustrating the auto market in Dongguan, it still maintains low growth, which is not simple. From the “difficulty of getting a car” at the beginning of the year to the mid-year inventory pressure, from the blind optimism of vehicle manufacturers’ productivity to the careful adjustment of production and sales targets at the end of the year, this heavy weight of the market mutates into an illusion, whether it will be in November. When I wake up, what kind of "constant" exists at this moment?

The first dream imagery: "Difficulty in picking up the car" and "Increase the car price"

This year's Spring Festival, the key words of the automobile market in Dongguan are "difficult to mention cars." Since the second half of 2009, most of the best-selling models have been in short supply, and some dealers have even added money to sell cars. "I thought the dealers had discounted sales before the Spring Festival and took the opportunity to buy a car and go home for the New Year. I didn't expect the auto market to be so pretty." The owner Yang told reporters in this way.

It is understood that before the Spring Festival this year is the peak of car sales, but this year almost all car dealers have clamored for "car shortage." Due to insufficiency in supply, many dealers require car buyers to add decorations. The price of decoration ranges from 5,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan. In fact, the actual cost of the decoration of 10,000 yuan is at most 4,000 yuan or even only 1,000 yuan. This is equivalent to disguised money to sell cars, while the naked "price increase car" is frequently appeared in Dongguan.

In fact, the shortage of vehicles has also appeared in the past few years, but it is limited to some brands and models, and this year's car shortage almost covers most brands, which makes the Dongguan Auto Market at the beginning of the year add a few “dream colors”. Even some car dealers could not believe it. “This is mainly due to the lack of preparation by automakers. There are not enough ordering parts and production is limited.” For this “dream”, professionals have given such explanations. However, such individual cases are still difficult to explain the basic reason for the universal existence of “difficulty in mentioning cars”. Is it the car dealer's commercial operation or market disorder? "Dream" doesn't seem to "awake", and the Dongguan auto market has fallen into the second dream.

The Second Dream Image: "Inventory Pressure", "Price Warfare"

In the movie Pirates of Dreams, the status of the first and second dreams is very different, which means that people have entered deeper dreams. Similarly, it is only a few months apart from the “difficult to mention cars” phenomenon. The phenomenon of “inventory top pressure” appeared again, and car dealers wanted to open a “price war” to win cash flow.

Why do you think this seems to be a dream? Looking at the data for April of this year, it is still a horse flat river in front of the Chinese auto market. During the month, China's automobile production and sales reached 1.653 million vehicles and 1.5552 million vehicles respectively, an increase of 34.61% and 34.37% year-on-year, of which the auto market is most concerned about. In the passenger car market, domestic passenger car production and sales reached 1,412,600 units and 1,111,900 units respectively in April, an increase of 39.19% and 33.21% respectively year-on-year. In the traditional off-season of the Chinese auto market in April, the auto market is still able to produce such a beautiful report card. It is perfect. Since the data is so perfect, why does the Dongguan market still complain of "inventory"?

An auto dealer in Dongguan, who asked not to be named, said in an interview with reporters: “These data are basically meaningless. We have to make reference to the significance. The actual number of cards may be more reliable, but we cannot get the data. ,You see (this data) we have more than 10,000 cars sold in April this year. In fact, there are dozens of cars in our store.” It seems that the second “dream” is not welcomed by Dongguan dealers. .

In order to get out of the "dreamland", car dealers do not hesitate to start a price war. This has caused consumers to become excited. After nearly one and a half years in the auto market because of insufficient supply, consumers finally saw the dawn of a game with manufacturers. The car will not only have to wait for the car, but also the price. It is also going down. This kind of happiness has come too suddenly, like a "dream."

The third dream image: "hot scene" and "preferential tightening"

If the predicament in the middle of the year makes car dealers worry about consumers, then the hot scene since October is another happy dream. As Nancheng held regional consumer subsidies activities, the reporter learned from the dealers in Nancheng City that the sales situation of the National Day auto market this year was significantly better than last year. In the context of a large number of tourists on long holidays and a more declining popularity than “May Day,” Volume increased significantly. Part of the brand's sales can be described as "blowout."

Then there was the hot Dongguan auto show. The reporter learned from relevant statistics that the total number of people entering the Dongguan Auto Show opened on September 29 was 150,000, and the number of on-site auto transactions was 2,690. The intention was to reach 5,100 customers and the volume was last year's auto show. Nearly 3 times. In terms of luxury cars, the ultra-popular Lexus sold 90 units, BMW 85 units, imported 55 units, Mercedes-Benz more than 50 units, Landrouge, Jaguar, Volvo sold a total of 25 units; in joint venture brands, Dongfeng Nissan sold more than 450 vehicles on site. Taiwan, FAW Toyota 330, Guangzhou Automobile Honda 113, Shanghai Volkswagen 41. In addition, Ford, Dongfeng Honda, Beijing Hyundai, Dongfeng Yueda Kia, FAW Mazda, Changan Mazda also have a good sales performance; own brand, BYD 6 days A total of more than 500 cars were sold, and Geely and its three brands also had sales of over 100 units. This was unimaginable in previous years. Japanese brands are the brand systems with the highest market share. The competition among brands is also very fierce. Basic competition has been achieved between competing models. During the National Day this year, Nissan and Honda’s business policies have shown a radical trend. These were also absent in previous years. After a series of aggressive marketing strategies adopted by major brand dealers, the auto market again experienced a long-lasting blowout situation.

In the face of this “good dream”, the auto market in Dongguan has also appeared “Poly Li Qing Ku” and tightened the margin of preference. It is understood that during the Golden Week, the discount rate for automobiles has been stabilized due to the joint efforts of manufacturers, and the manufacturers have adjusted their production capacity and sales plans, making the current inventory of distributors in a good state and there has not been a large-scale price drop. Some hot-selling models, such as the North-South Volkswagen series and some imported models, have seen price corrections, and there are even cases of fare increase. According to industry insiders, during the second half of the fourth quarter of the auto market in Dongguan, the phenomenon of tightening of such preferential offers may continue to exist.

Ye Wentong from Dongguan Fufeng Motors Co., Ltd. told reporters that the strong sales of long holidays further enhanced the auto dealers' confidence in the market outlook. Although post-holiday traffic and sales may experience a slight decline, we have received a lot of orders during the holiday season. Together with pre-holiday orders, our focus in the next phase will be on securing supply and delivery. In addition, the reporter also learned from the Dongguan market that the new King Cheng, Mazda Ruiyi, Long Yi and other models have canceled or reduced the profit after the festival.

Fourth - Reality? Dreamland?

Imagery: "Policies get together"

Since the fourth quarter, especially in November and December, policies such as automobile going to the countryside, purchase tax concessions, and newly appeared drafts for the use of vehicles and boats have entered the node. Coupled with the impulse demand of car companies, whether the auto market in Dongguan will return to the end of the year. The normal state of supply and demand, that is whether it is "back to reality," is still a mystery.

Some industry insiders analyzed, the automobile to the countryside, purchase tax concessions and other major favorable measures, the background of the introduction at that time was related to the global financial crisis and the decline of the auto industry. With the automobile industry picking up and China becoming the world’s largest automobile production and sales country, these policies in 2011 Whether it will continue or not, there is no official statement at present. However, from the current situation analysis, the possibility of car-to-country and purchase tax preferential policies ending at the end of 2010 is increasing, so automakers and consumers are likely to sprint to catch up with the policy “last train”.