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In the third quarter of 2010, the report of Sinopec's industry climate index showed that the China-Oil Oil Industry Prosperity Index was 100.0 points, down 0.5 points from the previous month; Sinochem's chemical industry prosperity index was 102.1 points, up 0.1% from the previous quarter, basically unchanged. Further analysis reveals that due to the impact of global climate change, disaster climates have become more frequent this summer, which has directly led to a year-on-year growth in the total profit and product sales revenue of the oil industry and chemical industry. At the same time, with the adjustment of industry structure and the acceleration of industrial upgrading, the industry has reached a consensus on the drawbacks of the traditional investment-led extensive development model, and investment growth in some areas with serious excess capacity has begun to slow down. Correspondingly, the total fixed asset investment in the oil industry maintained a stable year-on-year growth rate, but the total fixed asset investment in the chemical industry declined year-on-year.
In the fourth quarter, many factors such as the increase in oil prices, energy conservation and emission reduction, and demand-pulling are in resonance. Most petroleum and chemical industry products are expected to increase in volume and price. The operating rate of enterprises is expected to increase significantly, and the industry has entered an upward trend in the economy. The main trends are as follows:
The relationship between supply and demand in the crude oil market is basically normal, but the US dollar index continues to decline, coupled with the onset of the peak season for petrochemical products, crude oil prices are expected to stabilize 80 US dollars / barrel. Domestic refined oil prices may be adjusted, and the petrochemical industry climate index is expected to rise. In terms of subdivided varieties, the demand for diesel oil has increased, the relationship between supply and demand may be tight, and the supply of gasoline is slightly loose.
Constrained by the problem of overcapacity, the prices of large inorganic chemical products have been hovering near the cost line for a long time. The level of start-up of the enterprises is insufficient, and the downstream enthusiasm for stocking is limited. With the increase in pressure for energy conservation and emission reduction, local governments began to clean up the preferential electricity prices, the cost of related enterprises increased, and the demand for downstream industries began to recover. The superposition of these factors led to an increase in the prices of soda ash, caustic soda, calcium carbide and yellow phosphorus, especially yellow. Phosphorus prices are noteworthy and there are more than expected.
Due to the lack of start-ups in the previous period, the international market continues to rise, and the orders for the peak season and early-stage fertilizer fall into autumn support, the price of domestic agrochemical products is running at a high level. We believe that due to the existence of serious excess capacity, the market price of urea and phosphate fertilizer will depend on the international market trend. Due to the Canadian potash merger, the domestic potash fertilizer price has been raised frequently. International potash producers continue to be optimistic about the follow-up price trend of potash fertilizer, but we think we need to be cautious.
Due to tight global supply and climatic factors, cotton prices hit a record high for ten years, and futures prices are above 20,000 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of rainfall, the listing of new cotton in China will be postponed. In general, the factors supporting cotton prices will remain unchanged in the short term. As a substitute for cotton, polyester staple fibers, viscose fibers, and spandex have changed for a long time and the price has been continuously raised, but they need to pay attention to the exchange rate. Change impact on related industries.
Under the background of adjusting the industrial layout and eliminating backward production capacity, differentiated and professional development has become a development model for organic chemicals, fine chemicals and new chemical material industries. Among the related products, products such as bisphenol A, aniline, ABS resin, and plasticizer are areas that deserve attention.
Although the related industries will enter the upward trend in the fourth quarter, it is still necessary to clearly realize that the current industry is facing a complex and volatile situation. On the one hand, there are still many uncertainties and uncertainties in domestic and foreign markets. The severity of the impact of the international financial crisis and the tortuous nature of the global economic recovery cannot be underestimated. These factors will all constitute constraints on the development of related industries; on the other hand, The domestic petrochemical industry is facing a strategic opportunity to closely grasp the international industrial transfer, and it is in the transition period from the petrochemical big country to the petrochemical power. In this regard, industry companies should continue to implement the relevant requirements for the "Planning and Revitalization of the Petrochemical Industry", closely track and analyze the situation, focus on improving the quality and efficiency of industrial development, and enhance the industry's international competitiveness and sustainable development capabilities, and further strengthen the industry. The competitiveness.
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The SINOPEC’s industry prosperity index report and relevant industry data show that the economic conditions of the petrochemical industry in the third quarter are in a consolidation trend and have entered the adjustment range. With the arrival of the peak season for petrochemical products and the steady deepening of energy conservation and emission reduction, the performance of the oil industry and the chemical industry in the fourth quarter is worth looking forward to.