The automotive industry will adjust the 2018 steadily into the structural upgrade

Recently, the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Center") data resource center has released terminal retail data for the Chinese automotive market. The data shows that in 2017 China's auto market sold 28.04 million vehicles, which was a year-on-year increase of 2%, a sharp drop from the high growth rate of 15.5% in the same period of 2016, of which 24.53 million vehicles were sold throughout the year, a slight drop of 0.3% year-on-year. The main factors affecting the low growth of the automotive market; commercial vehicles sold 3.51 million vehicles throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the scale once again exceeded 3.5 million vehicles, second only to the historical high in 2010.

Affected by the adjustment of vehicle purchase tax policy at the end of 2016 and the fall of new energy vehicle subsidy policy, there are clear signs of adjustment in the passenger car market in 2017. After experiencing a brief decline in January and after adjusting in February and March, the second and third quarters In the fourth quarter, sales increased by 6.6%, 7.6%, and 2.4%, respectively. From April to December, cumulative sales growth was 5.1%, which was better than the full year. In the field of commercial vehicles, on the one hand, the economic environment is stable throughout the year, and investment in infrastructure construction remains high, providing a basis for growth in the commercial vehicle market. On the other hand, due to the strict implementation of overriding overload restrictions, the decline in bicycle capacity has resulted in a shortage of commercial vehicle capacity. , Pulling the market to concentrate the purchase of terminal demand rose.

â–  Leading German Brand Loyalty

The data of independent brands surpassing Korean law shows that in 2017, in terms of loyalty of Chinese auto brands, there are pyramids among mainstream brands: the top is the German, the middle is the Japan and the United States, and the bottom is the Chinese and Korean law.

The replacement data of the data center of the China National Automobile Center shows that the Mercedes-Benz, Audi, BMW and Volkswagen of the German Department have a brand loyalty of about 20% to 30%. German-based users have formed a relatively large core user group. The overall user turnover rate is 47%, and the remaining foreign-funded systems are all over 70%. Japanese and American mainstream brand loyalty ranged from 10% to 20%. Wuling is the only independent brand to enter this range. It is understood that the U.S. and U.S.-based products all have unique advantages. At the same time, some consumers think that they have obvious shortcomings and their overall strength is weaker than the German-made products. This makes the U.S. and U.S.-based products also form a relatively fixed consumer group, but The size of its core users is lower than the German brands. The brand loyalty of the Great Wall, Chang'an, etc. is close to 10%, fully surpassing the Korean system and the law system.

Under the background of the overall market decline, the annual terminal retail sales of the SUV in 2017 was 10.24 million, an increase of 14.6% year-on-year. Although the growth rate declined, it remained the only market segment that maintained positive growth. Supply and demand have promoted the rapid development of the SUV market. First of all, from the perspective of consumers' willingness to purchase cars, the SUV has reached 45% of consumers’ willingness to purchase cars last year and has become the first choice for consumers to purchase cars for five consecutive years, regardless of new purchases. With the purchase and redemption, consumers have a higher preference for SUVs; secondly, the supply of SUV models continues to increase, covering all price segments. According to statistics, a total of 1,631 models were launched in the SUV market in 2017, accounting for nearly half of the total number of new passenger vehicles. The abundant models meet the needs of all sectors and largely diverted the demand for cars and mid-to-high end MPVs. .

â–  The commercial vehicle suffered major policy favors last year

In terms of commercial vehicles, sales of heavy trucks reached 1.03 million units in 2017, a significant year-on-year increase of 54.3%. The sales volume reached the highest level in history, mainly due to two factors: First, a large number of infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, and airports have started construction projects, stimulating engineering heavy trucks. The rapid growth of the market; Second, the implementation of the new version of the GB1589 standard, strict control of overloaded overrun, resulting in about 300,000 capacity shortages in the heavy truck highway logistics transportation market, stimulating the central market to increase purchases. The tow truck market was the most affected by oversight. The annual retail sales reached 525,000 units, an increase of 54.7% year-on-year, and the contribution to heavy trucks increased to 51.0%, which was the main driving force for the growth of the heavy-duty truck market.

According to the data, the sales of 2017 young cards reached 1.56 million, an increase of 16.3% year-on-year, while the number of special light trucks reached 503,000, an increase of 29.3% year-on-year. Talking about the reasons, experts from the data center of China National Automobile Center stated that, first of all, in 2017, the country has issued a number of important documents concerning the promotion of the development of the logistics industry. In addition, the “online shopping” market has prospered and promoted the rapid development of the logistics industry. Car demand growth. At the same time, because of the upgrading of residents' consumption and the importance attached to food safety, products such as cold-preserving vehicles are increasingly favored; secondly, the process of urbanization continues to advance, more people are flooding into the cities, and the government’s fiscal expenditure has steadily increased, which is used to maintain the urban environment. The special vehicles such as garbage cleaning vehicles and sanitation vehicles have achieved significant growth. In terms of light passengers, with the popularity of low-end SUVs and MPVs in the rural market, the rural public passenger transport market was replaced by private cars, and sales in the China-Pakistan market fell. Wide-body light passengers are gradually becoming the main force of the light passenger market.

â–  SUVs will maintain high growth in 2018

The investigation of the MPV market towards low-grade cities shows that in the future, the consumption upgrading demand of middle-class and wealthy households will continue to vigorously promote consumption growth, and at the same time help the consumption upgrade to high quality. With the development of China's economy, the middle class has grown rapidly, and more affluent, more personal and tasteful, and increasingly sophisticated consumer groups have grown rapidly, and demand for luxury car brands has further increased.

According to the data held by the China National Automobile Center Data Resource Center and replacement data analysis, the development momentum of SUVs and MPVs will be very rapid in 2018. From the perspective of the distribution of insured quantity and the swapping of the market, the development areas and powers of the two are different, and the future development prospects are likely to be different: the SUV's share will be closer to the 40% share of the swap market SUV. During this process, the SUV market will continue to grow at a high speed for a long period of time. As MPV, as a functional product, has a limited target population, the main growth driver is the upgrading and redemption of original cross-passenger passengers, and the growth base is slightly weak. In the past few years, the high-speed growth phase that goes hand in hand with SUVs may be coming to an end, and MPV market centers may shift to lower-level cities.

Experts suggest that with the post-90s becoming the main force of consumption, the major OEMs can target the target population in the third-tier cities and below, and develop automotive products that meet the 90-year driving habits.

With regard to commercial vehicles, with the development of logistics model information and intelligent development, the transportation fleet tends to be large-scale and platform-based. Logistics companies are constantly escalating their demands for “cost reduction and efficiency increase” and promote the more efficient tractor market. Demand continues to grow, especially after the full implementation of the new GB1589 standard, the capacity of the tractor's bicycles will increase relative to the number of trucks. In 2018, the trucking market will accelerate the transition to tractors. In addition, under the rapid development trend of high-efficiency logistics such as e-commerce and cold chain, higher requirements are placed on the reliability and safety of vehicle transportation, and the tractor product will accelerate the upgrade trend.

In addition, the rise of the shared freight model will promote the intelligent speeding of trucks. The shared freight model will also increase the utilization rate of vehicles, and the reduction of logistics costs will be increasingly valued by users. The development of shared freight is inseparable from the intelligentization of truck products, such as the establishment of an intelligent dispatching system through the on-board terminal, realizing accurate positioning of transportation personnel, vehicles, and cargo, real-time tracking of vehicles, playback of trajectory, and monitoring of load conditions. To ensure the safety of personnel and improve the response to unexpected situations.

â–  Terminal retail is expected to reach 28.24 million units in 2018

The data center of China National Automobile Center predicts that the macro economy will continue to grow steadily in 2018, and the annual GDP growth rate is expected to be 6.6%, which will create a stable external environment for the development of the auto market. Under the background of low growth in the automotive market, the development momentum of the automotive market will switch.

According to statistics, the per capita GDP of China in 2017 will approach 9,000 U.S. dollars, and the trend of consumption upgrade will become more obvious. In 2018, the development of China's auto market will continue to maintain the trend of consumption upgrade. The data shows that 10.28 million Chinese car owners conducted the original vehicle in 2017. Replacement, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, which brought in 8.84 million new car increments, contributed 36% of the total passenger car sales. It is worth noting that the number of Chinese car owners who have reached the peak of purchase in 2018 will continue to maintain a high growth rate of over 20%.

In terms of the automobile industry policy environment, the purchase tax preferential policies have all withdrawn at the end of 2017, and their influence is less than at the end of last year, but some market demand in 2018 will still be overdrawn. The model calculation results of the data center of the China National Automobile Center show that the end of last year's purchase tax preferential policies withdrew from the market demand for 890,000 units in the first quarter of 2018. However, as the seasons progress, the impact of vehicle purchase tax preferential policies will gradually weaken. In the later period, the market will experience a recovery growth. However, due to the high base of 11-December 2017, the growth rate of the auto market will decline at the end of this year. At the same time, the new energy vehicle market will continue to maintain “policy-driven” growth under the influence of the “dual-credit” policy and the purchase tax exemption policy. It is expected that the growth of the auto market in the year 2018 will show a low, high, and then a low level. Convex type trend.

Considering economics, policies, and development factors in the auto market, combined with the base number and cyclical impact, the SAIC Center's data resource center predicts that the overall auto market in 2018 will maintain the development trend of steady progress and structural upgrading. From terminal retail sales, it is expected that the sales volume in 2018 will remain basically the same as 2017, and the sales volume is expected to reach 28.24 million units, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year. The passenger car market is expected to reach 24.7 million units, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales are expected to reach 3.54 million, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year.