“For electric bicycles with an export price of less than $1,100, the cost of imported lithium batteries accounts for $1,000.” A person in charge of a new energy company said with emotion, on the surface, it seems to be a technology-led emerging industry. It is also the old way of selling hard labor with labor-intensive and low-price competition.

At the just-concluded 108th Canton Fair, the reporter learned that the new energy industry in China is booming, and electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and new energy lighting are flooding the pavilion. However, the glory of the appearance is difficult to hide the deep hidden worry: many enterprises lack of core technology, no brand awareness and other reasons, product homogeneity is serious, and soon fell into a low level of repeated construction, blindly start the "price war" vicious competition Among them.

Taking the photovoltaic industry as an example, the phenomenon of “one high, one low” and “both ends” is presented. Solar cell production is high and installation is low. In China, the first producer of solar cells, the installed capacity is less than 10% of the production volume; most of the solar cells produced in China are exported, and the raw materials are mainly imported. How to prevent emerging industries from “grabbing the market and losing the future” is becoming a hot issue that should be timely regulated by relevant departments.

High-tech products without "heart"

At this year's Canton Fair, the new energy industry represented by electric vehicles, LEDs and solar photovoltaic panels is undoubtedly the most beautiful industry. In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the China Chamber of Commerce for Electromechanical and the Minmetals Chemical Industry Association told the "Weiwang" News Weekly that, apart from a few newly-created enterprises, the transformation of a large number of traditional manufacturing enterprises into the new energy industry is causing the "explosive" of China's new energy industry. An important reason for growth.

The rapid increase in demand in the international market is also the reason for the vigorous development of the solar industry. Fu Liang, general manager of Zhejiang Juli New Energy Co., Ltd., told this reporter that in early 2009, Juli Group formed Juli New Energy Co., Ltd., which is currently engaged in the export of solar modules and projects. The company's goal is By 2015, sales will exceed 10 billion yuan. In the past two years, the business has developed well and the components are in short supply. Now sales have reached more than 2 billion yuan. At the current rate, the goal of exceeding 10 billion yuan can be achieved in less than 2015.

However, the situation from the front line of the market shows that due to the low barriers to entry and the lack of core technologies, China's new energy industry has clearly demonstrated a low level of redundant construction and a vicious competitive situation of relying on the “price war” to fight for exports.

In the Canton Fair exhibition hall, Cao Xincheng, deputy general manager of Jinan Qingqi Motorcycle Co., Ltd. pointed out to the reporter that several new electric vehicles launched by the company said that the price is less than 1,100 US dollars, and the cost of imported lithium batteries accounts for 1,000. Around the dollar, "even the bones (oil and water) are drained."

In his view, the main reason for this situation is that most enterprises do not master the core technology of lithium batteries, and the product design ability is poor. "Many of them are blindly rushing into this market and fighting for each other. The result is that they can sell 1200 last year. The US dollar product dropped to $900 at the beginning of this year, and now someone shouts $700. The cost of cutting the battery is basically a loss."

The embarrassing situation of electric vehicles is also common in other areas of the new energy industry. In an interview with News Weekly, Gao Qingsheng, president of Quanzhou Golden Sun Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., said that with photovoltaic panels as an example, low-end products are now basically struggling on the cost line due to vicious competition and rising costs. Products can only maintain a maximum profit of 10%. Wu Huan, manager of Zhuhai Domingli New Energy Co., Ltd., which has been engaged in the manufacture of new energy lamps for more than 10 years, said that the company’s profits are now less than 10%, mainly because the competition for homogenized products is too fierce.

"What is more serious is that low-level competition, imitation and reproduction have caused the industry to stagnate and the production design capability has been weak. Many companies have transformed into this business and found that the industry is not thinking about transformation as expected. Do something else." Wu Huan stressed to the reporter.

Lin Fuzeng, the sales manager of Zhejiang Baolite New Energy Co., Ltd., pointed out that the new energy industry was originally a “double-intensive” capital and technology industry. As a result, many Chinese companies only spent a lot of money to build production lines, but they lacked Mastering the capabilities and talents of core technologies will lead to a crisis in industrial development.

European and American markets "dependency"

The situation from this Canton Fair shows that Chinese enterprises are actively participating in the new energy industry. On the one hand, due to the support and guidance of national policies, on the other hand, they are affected by the market effects formed by the subsidies of developed countries such as Europe and the United States through government subsidies. However, in the absence of sufficient development in the domestic market, as countries such as Europe and the United States rapidly increase trade frictions against China's related industries, how to avoid the heavy losses of Chinese companies that are highly dependent on these national markets is worthy of attention.

Gao Qingsheng said that most of the new energy industry is now an export-oriented company. On the one hand, consumers in the developed countries such as Europe and the United States are more willing to purchase energy-saving products because of their energy-saving awareness and government subsidy policies. On the other hand, although the domestic market potential is great in the future, the price of energy-saving products is higher than that of ordinary products. Quite a lot, consumers tend to choose cheaper traditional products, and domestic market development will take time.

Taking electric vehicles as an example, Cao Xincheng said that electric vehicles in the domestic market mainly use lead-acid batteries, which are highly polluting and difficult to recycle. While new energy electric vehicles using lithium batteries are more environmentally friendly, the price is close to a thousand dollars. Without a market, it can only be exported to European and American markets, because the governments of these markets give high subsidies. "I heard that the EU will cut the relevant subsidies next year, then our industry development will be greatly affected."

Fu Liang told this reporter that the domestic market development of solar photovoltaic panels is not very good, so many companies have turned to export development. “Now 95% of domestic component factories are exporting. If foreign markets change, domestic manufacturers will die a lot. ."

This concern of the company is likely to gradually become a reality. Qu Tengfei, manager of Jiangsu Yadi Technology Development Co., Ltd., worriedly told the reporter that “due to the lack of national standards, domestic enterprises have started production according to European standards or imitated Taiwan technical specifications, which is very constrained by other countries’ markets. It also 'kidnapped' the setting space of China's own technical standards. In the long run, the hidden dangers are not small."

Some enterprises have reported that since 2009, due to factors such as the economic recovery and domestic employment, some countries have begun to exclude China's new energy products in order to protect the domestic market. Fu Liang said that some countries have begun anti-dumping cases against Chinese solar panels. Lin Fuzeng added that after the international financial crisis, the demand and policies of new energy in Europe and the United States are changing. The United States conducted an investigation of 301 clean energy in China at the end of October. "Under the superposition of various factors, the United States is not willing to rule out Let China take the consideration of the commanding heights of the new energy industry."

Deep into the low end of the value chain

Taking the photovoltaic industry as an example, a corporate executive introduced the embarrassing situation of China's new energy industry.

China is developing rapidly, but it is not at the high end of the value chain. The international financial crisis has made the potential risks explicit. In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry is often subject to upstream silicon materials, and equipment vacancy appears in all links of the industrial chain. At the same time, due to rising prices and strong control of upstream manufacturers, their cost will often exceed 50% of the entire component.

Polysilicon materials are basically in the hands of more than a dozen manufacturers in developed countries. Due to the gap between supply and demand in polysilicon, the price of high-end materials remains high, and the project investment is huge, which has prompted many enterprises from all over the world to invest in polysilicon production. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2007, the production capacity of polysilicon production lines under construction and preparation in China reached 116,720 tons, with an investment of more than 100 billion.

According to the current Chinese 10 tons / MWp calculation, the amount of solar cells corresponding to these single crystal silicon is around 11GMWp. However, China is still at the low end of polysilicon technology, the technology is backward, the energy consumption ratio is higher than the world's advanced level, and there is a certain amount of pollution. The competitive technology is developing rapidly, and the domestic PV market is in a state of start-up, which all lurks risks.

From the perspective of the cost distribution of the international value chain in 2006, battery technology, system installation and component packaging are the links with higher added value. However, the component packaging technology and equipment are relatively simple, with less investment, quick start-up, low risk, and labor-intensive links. The profit margin is limited, and its future space is inevitably compressed. It is difficult to become a strategic link of the value chain, but this fits. China's relatively low labor price advantage has attracted a large number of Chinese manufacturers to enter, greatly reducing the profit of this part of China. From the perspective of the overall industrial chain in 2007, Chinese companies are focusing on batteries/components and silicon ingots/silicon wafers, with sales accounting for more than 90% of the entire photovoltaic industry.

Of course, domestic solar cell production has achieved great results. From 2006 to 2007, a total of 10 Chinese PV companies were listed overseas. The technical level is equivalent to that of the international, but it still stays at the level of introduction, digestion and absorption, and the independent research and development ability is weak.

In terms of system integration, there are many domestic market manufacturers, and the top companies are still foreign manufacturers. China's technology is not inferior to foreign countries. Most of China's independent photovoltaic systems and 100-150KW grid-connected system controllers/inverters have been realized. Domestic research and development and manufacturing.

It can be seen that at present, most of China's manufacturers do not master the high-end of the value chain, and their independent innovation capabilities are weak. The low-end industrial position of China's value chain has made potential risks a reality due to the international financial crisis. The price of polysilicon has fallen due to the impact of the cycle, which has caused many companies to suffer huge losses in inventory depreciation and difficulties in financing. At the same time, the most affected by the cyclical changes are definitely those non-strategic links. According to statistics, in the fourth quarter of 2008, there have been about 350 component companies in China, and only about 50 are left.

Preventing the development of "overdraft"

Lack of core technology and blind dependence on the market – for these two major drawbacks, many responsible persons of the company believe that the current situation of China's new energy industry is booming, indicating that the existing support policies are generally correct, but should be improved, especially in the standard. Strengthening macroeconomic regulation and control in the formulation, rectification of the industry, and avoiding the “new morning” and catching up in the new energy industry.

First of all, we should speed up the improvement of the standards and policy support of the new energy industry, so that the domestic market and the international market can effectively connect and avoid being subject to people. Cao Xincheng said that taking electric vehicles as an example, the country does not have clear standards. The relevant supporting vehicles are mixed. The relevant departments should, based on the experience of developed countries in Europe and the United States, introduce standards that meet the actual needs of China, so that enterprises can have a path to follow. .

Secondly, it is necessary to avoid a new round of low-level redundant construction through planning, and guide existing enterprises to strengthen brand building. Lin Fuzeng said that the existing situation indicates that there is widespread overcapacity in the new energy industry such as solar photovoltaic panels in China. If a round of projects is repeated in the future, the consequences will be very serious. Therefore, the state should raise the threshold for market access and support policies, so that enterprises with technology, ability and brand can join in order to ensure the sustainable development of the industry.

Furthermore, improve the industrial chain and strengthen industry self-discipline. Qu Tengfei said that the state should strengthen the guiding role of industry associations and chambers of commerce, so that the new energy industry will leave the current vicious "price war" situation as soon as possible. "The price war is because the current electric vehicle products are seriously homogenized. In response to this situation, the state should Let the company go its own way, have their own design, have their own characteristics."

Guo Zhenpeng admits that from the perspective of the industrial chain, the development of an industry is not only limited by the production level of core components, but also the overall finished products are subject to factors such as upstream materials and downstream components of various components. Relevant departments should encourage existing enterprises to The extension of the downstream chain avoids the old road of “processing plants” and the labor-intensive industries.

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