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"The rise in electricity prices may promote industry adjustments, but it will also make some industries worse." In an interview, Sun Weishan, director of the Industrial Development Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association said.
He believes that rising non-residential electricity prices will place greater pressure on the petrochemical industry. If the national average price increase is calculated at 2.8 cents/kWh (degrees), some calcium carbide companies that rely on “electricity†to survive may have half of their income. Due to rising electricity prices, production cuts or "parking."
"The calcium carbide industry will probably lose money in the entire industry." He said that because the prices of upstream and downstream products in the domestic market have basically failed to increase, the calcium carbide industry is an absolute low-profit industry with a profit of less than RMB 50/ton, and the price of coal has increased. On the basis of this, some companies themselves have already suffered losses and the price of electricity has been raised. The attack on the industry is bound to be great. "Unless the company has other supporting industries, it will face problems next time." Sun Weishan said that, in fact, less than half of calcium carbide companies have developed supporting industries. "That is, half of the companies may be at risk of reducing production or 'parking'."
Electricity price adjustment "encourage advanced"
In the notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on November 18, small and medium-sized chemical fertilizers, chlor-alkali using ion-membrane technology, nuclear power plant uranium diffusion plants and reactors, and electricity for agricultural irrigation, disaster relief, etc., were classified in the corresponding tariffs. There are discounts in the middle price, and the discount rate is usually around 1-2 cents.
"Fertilizer is usually enjoyed preferential tariffs." Sun Weishan told this reporter that its purpose is to protect the agricultural production of fertilizer. The price adjustment is no exception. Provinces, cities, and regions generally offer a discount of 2 cents on the basis of the corresponding classification price.
The chlor-alkali production using ion-membrane process technology offers preferential 1.42 points for Shandong and other places, 1.9 points for Hubei and Hunan, 1.98 points for Beijing and other places, 2 points for Chongqing and Inner Mongolia, and 30,000 for Inner Mongolia. Tonnes and above of chlor-alkali enterprises have 2.4 points in production and electricity consumption. According to Sun Weishan, in the chlor-alkali industry, the use of ion-membrane technology is about 40% lower than that of the diaphragm process.
In addition, at the end of 2007, the country has implemented the "All provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) to cancel the preferential implementation of preferential electricity prices for high energy-consuming enterprises such as electrolytic aluminum," but this time in some areas there are different levels of preferential prices for the electrolytic aluminum industry. For example, in Beijing, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons or more is 1.98 points.
As early as March of this year, 15 electrolytic aluminum enterprises were identified as direct-purchase electricity pilot enterprises by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the China Electricity Regulatory Commission, and the National Energy Administration. The Fushun Aluminum Plant pilot project was officially approved in October. This means that in the future adjustment of electricity prices, they also have different coordination space. "Direct power purchase companies should be able to resist the pressure of rising electricity prices," said Feng Fei, director of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center.
Experts said that the main reason for the preferential price of electricity is “encouraging advancedâ€, and it mainly tends to support enterprises with high scale, advanced production technology, and good energy efficiency mechanisms. However, as far as direct purchase of electricity pilots is concerned, Feng Fei believes that the “best†companies on the power supply side and power supply side should be involved, but this effect has not yet been achieved.
Cost price or "structural conduction"
Will the increase in the price of electricity for “large consumers†push up the sales price and the price of downstream industries?
"This involves a transmission mechanism problem." Feng Fei said in an interview that if it is an industry with excess capacity, its cost price and sales price, "should be a structural conduction," that is, it will not be 100% conduction.
For example, in the electrolytic aluminum industry, some business units (per ton of product) consume more than 14,000 kWh, and some units consume only 12500 kWh. When electricity prices rise, it is very difficult for the former companies to pass 100% of the cost of electricity to the downstream industries, while the latter enterprises have a comparative advantage and transfer the cost of rising electricity prices to the downstream industries.
Therefore, "structural conduction of prices will lead to structural adjustment of the industry." Feng Fei said that the electrolytic aluminum industry will inevitably face internal structural adjustment, high-power consumption companies will be eliminated, low-power companies will remain.
He believes that the increase in electricity prices, although it will increase the operating costs of enterprises, but it will also promote the adoption of energy-saving technologies and the formation of long-term energy-saving emission reduction mechanisms to achieve the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.
However, as far as the petrochemical industry is concerned, Sun Weishan believes that although the increase in electricity prices can play a positive role in the adjustment of the industrial structure, taking into account China’s actual energy situation, the high energy consumption industry will continue to exist within 35 years and even 10 to 20 years. .
For example, in the chlor-alkali industry, although the ion-exchange membrane process is far advanced than the membrane process, the state encourages adoption, but it cannot be promoted in the entire industry. "Need to consider the issue of technical safety and economic security." Sun Weishan said, "At present, we basically cannot make large ion membranes in our country. All of them must be imported from abroad, either from the United States or from Japan."
For another example, the total GDP of the calcium carbide industry is very limited, but the electricity consumption accounts for about 2% of the entire industrial electricity consumption, but it is currently indispensable. Because in foreign countries, PVC mainly uses the ethylene method, that is to use crude oil as raw material, but China's crude oil resources are limited, and calcium carbide method PVC still occupies a major part.
Calcium carbide and other industries or "slower"