Hydropower and hydropower wind power will develop rapidly in the next decade

Since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of China's energy industry has effectively supported economic and social development. However, in this process, some contradictions and problems have also gradually accumulated and have been exposed and highlighted in recent years. With the sustained and rapid growth in the demand for energy and electricity, the domestic coal, electricity, oil, gas and transportation tensions have been recurring. The ecological and environmental protection situation has become increasingly severe, and the pressure to cope with climate change is increasing. It is necessary to accelerate the adjustment of energy structure. At the same time, the new round of energy technology revolution, marked by new energy and smart grids, continues to breed, and the development of energy and power is undergoing profound changes. Therefore, the "power as a center" proposed at this stage has a very different connotation and significance.

Accelerate the strategic adjustment of energy structure. Power generation is an important direction for primary energy to achieve clean transformation and utilization. Coal is mainly used for power generation and its proportion is gradually increasing. To protect our energy supply, we must base ourselves on the national conditions. From the viewpoint of resource endowment, coal will be the basic energy source of our country for a long time to come. From the perspective of utilization, power generation is the most important method for coal utilization. It has the outstanding advantages of high utilization efficiency and easy centralized control of pollution. Continuously increasing the proportion of coal used for power generation is an inevitable trend of clean and efficient use of coal. In 2011, the proportion of coal used for power generation in China accounted for about 53% of the total coal consumption, and the average level in the world during the same period was 65%. The proportion of electric coal in developed countries such as the United States reached over 80% and even exceeded 90%. The proportion of coal for power generation in China is obviously low, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Accelerate the adjustment of the coal consumption structure, and by 2020, the proportion of China’s coal for power generation in coal consumption is expected to reach 63%.

Gas-fired power generation is a reasonable choice for accelerating the development and efficient use of natural gas. Natural gas is relatively clean fossil energy. At present, about one-fifth of China's natural gas is converted into electricity. In the future, with the breakthrough of unconventional natural gas such as natural gas exploration and development, shale gas, and the acceleration of overseas introduction, the natural gas supply capacity will increase substantially, and the proportion of China's primary energy consumption structure will gradually increase. As an important part of natural gas consumption, the appropriate development of natural gas power generation and distributed energy systems will help improve the power supply structure and energy structure. In the future, China will give priority to the development of natural gas power generation instead of receiving coal-fired power generation projects, and the proportion of installed gas will gradually increase, from approximately 3% in 2010 to 6% in 2020 and 8% in 2030. Generation gas accounts for natural gas supply. The proportion will also rise to about 1/4.

Electricity is the most important way for the development and utilization of non-fossil energy. In addition to a small part of non-fossil energy used for direct heating, gas production, and fuel production, its terminal utilization is mainly achieved through power generation. The proportion of non-fossil energy used in power generation in major developed countries exceeds 80%. In the next 10 years, China's hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and other non-fossil fuels will usher in a period of rapid development. The installed capacity of hydropower will reach 120 to 160 million kilowatts, and the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 0.6 to 70 million kilowatts. The new installed capacity of wind power will reach 120-160 million kilowatts. By 2020, the total amount of non-fossil energy use is about 770 million tons, accounting for 15.0% of primary energy consumption, of which non-fossil energy converted into electricity accounts for 84%. Electricity plays a central role in the development and utilization of non-fossil energy.

On the whole, with the acceleration of the pace of clean energy structure adjustment and the demand for efficient energy use, electricity will play an increasingly important role in the energy conversion and utilization system. By 2020, the proportion of China's energy-generating energy in primary energy consumption will increase from the current 40% to about 50%. Among them, about 65% of the new primary energy supply will be used for power generation. Through incremental optimization and inventory adjustment, the status of power balance in the energy balance has increased significantly, and the overall level of energy use in China will be greatly increased.

Rationally controlling total energy consumption, increasing energy efficiency, and elevating the level of electrification are fundamental measures. With the further increase in the proportion of coal and natural gas into electricity, the large-scale development and utilization of non-fossil energy such as hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power, and the rapid development of electrical energy substitution The level of electrification in China will gradually increase. The experience at home and abroad has proved that the improvement of the level of electrification can improve the efficiency of comprehensive utilization of energy, which is conducive to the realization of the target of total energy consumption control. Research shows that there is a significant negative correlation between the level of electrification and energy intensity. According to statistics, during the period from 1995 to 2010, China's energy consumption accounted for a percentage point increase of terminal energy consumption, energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 3.9%; after calculation, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the proportion of electricity consumption for terminal energy consumption increased by 1 percentage point. Energy consumption per unit of GDP will drop by about 3%. The next decade is a crucial period for the in-depth development of China's industrialization and urbanization. Coordinated deployment from the national level to promote the electrification process is indispensable for improving China's energy efficiency and alleviating pressure on energy supply. By 2020, the proportion of energy consumption in the terminal energy consumption is expected to increase from the current 21% to about 27%, and further increase to about 30% in 2030, which will become China's largest end-user energy consumption.

The characteristics of the reverse distribution of China's energy resources and consumption centers determine the large-scale distribution pattern of coal, water, wind, and solar energy. It is imperative to build a nationwide backbone network. Coal transportation and transmission are the strategic choices for coal resource allocation in the future. With the construction of the country's five comprehensive energy bases, the proportion of energy transmission carried by cross-regional transmission corridors will gradually increase, which will become an important part of the comprehensive energy transportation system. According to the general layout of coal development in the "Control the eastern part, stabilize the central part, and develop the western part," China's new coal output will be mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia and Xinjiang in the future, and the focus of coal production will gradually shift westward and northwards. The imbalance in consumption will be further aggravated. Due to scarcity of land resources, large pressure for environmental protection, and low degree of safety and security for power coal supply in eastern China, it is no longer appropriate to continue large-scale addition of coal power and large-scale transportation of coal. Compared with coal transportation, accelerating the development of cross-regional power transmission has good economic performance (the landing power price for cross-regional power transmission to the receiving power grid is lower than the on-grid tariff of the coal-fired power benchmark by 0.05 yuan/kWh or more), and the energy efficiency of the entire link is high. It will help ease the pressure on coal transportation and environmental pressure in the eastern region. In the future, China's coal and electricity distribution should gradually be tilted toward the resource-rich regions in the northern part of the country. Through the transmission of electricity, the coal resources can be allocated economically and efficiently. The new coal-fired power installations in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other provinces and regions can account for more than half of the country's total. The focus is to build a coal-power integrated large-scale coal and electricity base, accelerate the construction of cross-regional UHV transmission channels, and build a new type of integrated energy transportation system.

"To focus on decentralization and supplemented by decentralization" should be the development model for China's future clean energy. Objectively, it is necessary to build a nationwide backbone network to ensure the realization of development goals and efficient resource allocation. Future resources and construction conditions have determined that China's hydropower, wind power, and solar power generation constructions will focus on decentralization and decentralization. The hydropower resources to be developed in China are mainly distributed in Sichuan, Yunnan, Tibet and other provinces and regions, accounting for more than 80% of the remaining technological developments. The wind power and solar energy resources are mainly located in the "Three Norths" region. Coal resources in these areas are also very rich, and they can form complementary multi-energy, concentrated development and occupation of less resources, and better economic indicators. To focus on the development of clean energy, it is necessary to solve the problem of insufficient local consumption. The trans-regional transmission configuration of the grid is a technically feasible and economical solution.

Before 2020, the country will add 150 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity, of which 80% will be concentrated in the southwest region. In 2020, the scale of hydropower transmission in the southwest will reach 80 million kilowatts or more. By 2020, the development scale of six large-scale wind power bases in the "Three North" region will exceed 100 million kilowatts, and the scale of trans-regional transportation and consumption should exceed 70%. In order to solve the problem of wind power output instability, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu wind power bases can co-ordinate the development and joint transportation with coal-fired power bases. The main use of “net-to-grid” power transmission methods is to transport to Central, East, and South China load centers. Comprehensive analysis shows that based on national policy incentives, they are economically competitive, have flexible operations, and are highly secure.

In recent years, wind power has been decentralized and developed. Power grid companies have made unremitting efforts to accept wind power. From the experience of Europe, the scale of wind power development depends not only on the power supply structure, peaking capacity, cross-regional trans-national transmission intensity and balance adjustment, but also on incentives such as fiscal subsidies, price differences, and quotas. From a development perspective, the problems that have emerged at this stage will eventually be resolved.

For a long time to come, China's energy deployment and construction focus will gradually shift to large energy bases in Shanxi, Erdos, Mengdong, Southwest, and Xinjiang, and the energy demand center will not fundamentally change in the short-term situation in the central and eastern regions. To realize the scientific development of energy and electricity, the key must be deployed in accordance with the national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" outline, to accelerate the construction of the country's five comprehensive energy bases as an opportunity to accelerate the development of UHV power transmission and build a nationwide backbone network for a wider range of energy resources. Optimizing the configuration provides the basic platform, which is not only in line with China's national conditions, but also can meet the objective needs of clean and low-carbon energy development. It is the only way for the sustainable development of energy and power in the future.