Li Qingwen: China's auto industry should vigorously develop the third and fourth line market

According to the Voice of Economy “Yangguang Finance Review”, in the face of the weak growth of less than 3% in the auto industry in the first half of this year, many economists have made suggestions for the development of the current Chinese auto industry. Although sales of 18 million vehicles were already at the bottom of the market last year, China’s current auto industry should not have a bailout, but in the face of China’s world’s largest auto market, how automakers have better development and become economics The topics most concerned by the family.

At the "2012 Automotive Market Policy Trend Summit," Li Daokui, director of the China and World Economic Research Center at Tsinghua University, believes that the auto industry needs more regulation than stimulus policies. Li Daokui believes that there are currently two issues that deserve special attention in the automotive industry. One is the overcapacity of the current economic and energy-saving self-owned brands. The cost of real energy-saving and emission-reducing vehicles is too high to enter the market, indicating that production capacity itself needs to be adjusted. Second, because of the traffic congestion in the city, the car gradually turned to the use of long-distance travel. The concept of car consumption is changing, the mode of use is changing, and the industrial structure is changing, so companies must keep up with the changes in market and consumer demand.

Li Lianzhong, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Reform and Development Research Association, said that although China’s auto output is the first in the world, China has not yet developed such big auto companies as Ford and General Motors, and there are no world brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW. . Therefore, in China, the world’s largest auto market, China’s world-class auto brands will be built.

According to Ai Feng, Chairman of the Brand China Industry Alliance, the current illness in the auto industry is heavier than real estate. The root cause of this disease's intractability lies in the fact that “self-owned brands are too weak and foreign brands are too strong.” Ai Feng believes that to achieve leapfrog development, independent brands need to meet two conditions: First, the government attaches great importance to it; second, it must follow the cultural level.

The "Yangtze Finance Review", commentator of the Voice of the Economy and the president of the China Auto Newspaper Co., Ltd. Li Qingwen brought this comment:

Although the central government’s attitude toward strict regulation of the property market has been strong, but from the first time in nine months after the housing prices rebounded after the first time to see, there has been a clear rebound in housing prices, which has been criticized by many people. However, some economists point out that comparing the real estate industry to the automotive industry, there are more serious illnesses than real estate. Do you think the actual situation is not so serious?

Li Qingwen: First of all, I personally think that the problems of the real estate industry and the auto industry cannot be compared. The real estate industry and the automotive industry have a lot of great differences. First of all, the automotive industry is a sector with the highest degree of globalization. China's automobile market is in fact the world's automobile market. China's automobile industry is in fact the global automotive industry.

Second, the premium ability of the real estate brand is different from that of the car. Automotive is a world brand. In the auto industry, the automotive market is strong, but at present I have not seen a global real estate brand.

The development process of the third automobile and real estate industry is also not the same. The history of the automobile industry will be longer and the time will be more continuous. The real estate industry is characterized by periodic prosperity. The urbanization process is the real estate industry. It is inevitable that there will be great development, but after the completion of urbanization, the automobile industry will still have an orderly development. Therefore, it is also different. Whoever suffers from these two industries will have more serious illnesses, who will have less severe illnesses, or who will be sick. What kind of disease does not seem to be comparable to this.

The problem of the development of our automobile industry is in fact very clear and clear. First of all, China’s auto industry has a relatively large scale. This is something we are all proud of, but there is a huge hurdle behind the huge scale. The worry is whether the development of China’s own autonomous auto industry can be made so large. Scale becomes a company with both scale and strong real competitiveness, which means that it is not only big, but also strong. The biggest problem in China's auto industry is that it is big and not strong.

Any strong and powerful industry must first be technologically advanced, that is, he must possess the core technological capabilities. At present, the fundamental problem of China's auto industry is still not grasping the core competitiveness of the auto industry. The first point of this core competitiveness is the ability of technological innovation. Our auto industry is still too weak for independent innovation.

With regard to the restriction of purchases in major cities, my personal point of view is an inevitable trend. From the beginning of the purchase restriction in Beijing, I predict that there will be other provincial capital cities to follow up. The provincial-level cities that purchase cars will be a special stage of the Chinese automobile market within 10-20 years. During this stage, due to our The speed of growth of the vehicles is too fast. The oversized cities in the provincial capital are developing too fast. The infrastructure cannot keep up and the staff is accumulating too quickly. This will inevitably cause a series of problems such as urban congestion and environmental pollution. There are many solutions to the problem, but as the city's current manager to solve the urgent needs, the most effective means is still limited purchase.

Where is the demand for the automotive market? Did the demand for Chinese cars stop there? This is not the case. The demand for the Chinese auto market is huge. This huge market is in the countryside, in the third-tier cities, in the fourth-tier cities, and possibly in the townships. Our view is that now that the automobile is going to the countryside is an urgent choice, the automobile to the countryside will solve the problem of the healthy and sustainable development of the Chinese auto industry at this stage.

Cars go to the countryside is a big direction. In fact, in the problem of cars going to the countryside, China's own brand enterprises have a comparative advantage over joint venture brands. Because its own brand in the past its market is mainly in the second-tier market third-tier market, the fourth-tier market, joint venture brands are mainly in the first-line market, if our government has adopted the car to the countryside policy, on the one hand can start support to promote the healthy growth of the automotive market, in addition On the one hand, it is also a kind of support for the current independent brands encounter difficulties. The potential of car consumption in the third rural area will also be rejuvenated.

The more important car to the countryside is the most effective way for the city to feed the countryside and industry to feed back agriculture. At the same time, there is also an effect. Now that agricultural vehicles are widely used in rural areas, it seems that there were news reports yesterday. After a three-wheeled diesel farm vehicle in Fujian Province was overturned, more than a dozen people were stabbed to death by bruising. Such transport vehicles, There are huge potential problems in traffic safety and emissions.

If we are the mainstream backbone automotive enterprise products, and these products are small-displacement and economic-type, they can be extended to the vast rural areas, which will have a huge effect on China's energy-saving and emission reduction. We now put The vision is only to see the development of several electric cars and a few energy-saving vehicles in the city. I think this policy orientation is not better than the countryside policy from the perspective of calculation cost.

Other comments

Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher in the Department of Decision-making at the National School of Administration, said that after 10 years of rapid development, China's own-brand vehicles have returned to the starting point in terms of strategy. To make a breakthrough, we must first establish a clear national strategy. On the surface, China already has a national independent innovation strategy, but in terms of the automotive industry, it does not reach its strategic position. This industry will only have a chance to achieve breakthroughs at the national level.

The author of the Economic Daily pointed out that with the changes in the economic environment, self-owned brand cars have encountered some difficulties in their development. Practice has proven that low-quality, low-cost, low-cost development routes to market demand are not the development of the Chinese automobile industry. Great strategy for growth. Although in recent two years, independent brand companies have made many attempts to break through the current brand ceiling bottlenecks with high-end strategies, high-end strategies also face significant bottlenecks.

According to Jian Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, the high-end strategy should not be simply interpreted as a narrow high-end product. "The high-end strategy includes at least high-quality, high-tech, and high-end services. Conversely, whether it is low-end products, mid-range products, or high-end products, we should pursue high-quality products."

Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, said that with the pace of industrial transfer in recent years, auto consumption has also shifted from first and second-tier cities to third and fourth-tier markets. Although there are certain risks in the current 3rd and 4th-wire auto markets, the overall market space is huge. The 3rd and 4th-line markets have the characteristics of “high sales volume and low insurance volume” which are different from the 1st and 2nd-line markets. This also requires that each auto brand expands in 3 In the fourth-line channel, it is impossible to simply copy the existing channel mode of the first-tier and second-tier markets.

There are also automotive analysts who believe that in order to achieve long-term development, autonomous vehicle companies must further focus on local production. From the current point of view, the possibility of internationalization through the acquisition of foreign companies has been greatly reduced. The main reason is that companies with moderate prices and excellent quality that can be incorporated into acquisition intentions have become less and less. Therefore, in the future, independent brands must adopt the strategy of regular warfare and position warfare, and face multinational companies in front of their home markets to compete for market share.