2010: Mixed development of wind power industry

In 2010, the development of China's wind power industry was a mixed one. The good news is that China’s wind power industry continues to maintain its growth momentum, and at the same time, China has made great efforts to promote the development pace of offshore wind power; the worry is that the scale of wind power industry continues to expand, the market competition is increasingly fierce, and fans are constantly seeking new and rapid development. Behind the fan, there are hidden dangers in quality and safety.

The 2010 offshore wind power development accelerating installed capacity continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down significantly. In 2010, the wind power industry was listed in the country’s seven strategic emerging industries. Under the favorable opportunity of developing clean energy globally, the installed capacity of wind power in China continued to grow. The annual new installed capacity was 16.022 million kilowatts and the cumulative installed capacity was 41.827 million kilowatts. Compared with 2009, the growth rate of newly installed capacity of wind power generation in 2010 was only 16%, and the cumulative installed growth rate was 62%. Compared with the trend of doubling the installed capacity of wind power in successive years, the installed capacity of wind power in China was increased in 2010. Obviously slowing down, wind power industry is gradually entering a period of stable growth.

The state attaches great importance to the wind power industry, and offshore wind power has become the new darling In 2010, the country has successively introduced a series of laws, regulations and industrial policies that promote the development of the wind power industry. In addition, according to the state's latest energy plan, by 2020, the country will increase investment in the new energy sector by 5 trillion yuan, of which wind power accounts for 1.5 trillion yuan.

At the same time, 2010 is the first year of accelerated development of offshore wind power in China. On May 18, the National Energy Administration formally launched the first round of bidding for offshore wind power, totaling 1 million kilowatts, which are two 300,000 kilowatt offshore wind projects in Binhai and Sheyang, and two 200,000 kilowatts in Dafeng and Dongtai. The intertidal zone project was opened in Beijing on September 10th. In June of the same year, China's first offshore wind power project, the Shanghai Donghai Bridge 102 MW project, was all connected to the grid for power generation. While the country vigorously promotes the accelerated development of offshore wind power, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Fujian provinces have submitted their own plans for the development of offshore wind power. The wind power companies have also been developing and producing offshore wind turbines.

Large-scale development of wind turbines has become increasingly prominent, and direct-drive dual-feedback on the same stage of competition has led China’s wind turbines into the “megawatt-scale era” from 2005, when they only accounted for 21.5% of the newly installed capacity; in 2009, megawatt-class wind turbines became mainstream in the market. Accounted for 86.86% of the newly installed capacity in that year; in 2010, 2.5 MW or more wind turbines became the key development products of the industry; in August of the same year, Shanghai Electric 3.6 MW offshore wind turbines were connected to the grid for power generation; October Huarui Wind Power and Hunan Power announced The 5 MW offshore wind turbine is off the assembly line; it is reported that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, it will focus on the development of 3 to 5 megawatts of land-based wind turbines and 5 to 10 megawatt-class offshore wind turbines.

In the choice of technology path, direct drive and double feed have advantages and disadvantages. With the continuous improvement of reliability requirements for wind turbines, direct-drive turbine design is increasing. Due to the increased capacity of wind turbines, the new direct-drive variable-speed pitch technology is gradually becoming the mainstream technology of MW-class wind turbines in order to meet the challenges of limit load and fatigue load. The market share of direct-drive wind turbines is also rapidly expanding. Although the direct-drive wind turbine has high reliability and stable operation, there are also problems such as large volume and weight of the single-unit structure, high technical requirements, difficulty in transportation and installation, and the cost is about 30% higher than that of a unit requiring a 3-stage gearbox drive. At present, companies have started to develop semi-direct drive fans between direct-drive and double-fed fans. In the near future, the wind turbine will be in the same situation as the direct-drive fan and double-fed fan.

Rapid expansion of industry scale and fierce market competition In 2004, there were only 6 wind power machine manufacturers in China. As of the end of 2010, as the world’s largest producer of wind turbines, China has more than 100 complete machine manufacturers, and nearly 90 of them have offline prototypes. In addition, there are hundreds of wind power equipment component manufacturers, more than 50 blade manufacturers, and more than 100 tower manufacturers. More and more companies have entered the wind power industry, and the competition in the wind power equipment market has become increasingly fierce. Wind power equipment manufacturers are facing a new industry reshuffle.

The price of wind turbines continued to decline, and the profits of enterprises were severely reduced. In the face of fierce market competition, cruel price wars have been launched among enterprises. Since 2008, the market price of wind turbines in China has continued to decline. The most typical example is the unit price of a 1.5 MW fan, which has dropped from 6,500 yuan/kW at the beginning of 2008 to the current level of 3,800 yuan/kW.

The rapid decline in machine prices has severely eroded the profits of wind power equipment manufacturing companies. The rapid development of wind power equipment companies in the past two years has been slowing down in 2010. Taking Xiangdian Electric as an example, its financial results in the first half of 2009 increased by 300%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders of the company in the first half of 2010 only increased by more than 50% over the same period of last year.

Component manufacturing industry has basically formed a system, and some key components still need to be strengthened. At present, China's wind power component manufacturing industry has gradually matured and has formed a major component covering blades, gearboxes, generators, pitch yaw systems, hubs, and towers. Production system. However, there are still gaps between some of the key supporting capabilities and the international advanced level, such as control systems, wind power bearing products, etc., and related R&D and manufacturing strengths need to be further strengthened.

Frequent safety incidents, hidden dangers in quality In 2010, several vicious wind power incidents sounded alarm bells for the rapid development of wind power in recent years, and the quality of wind power equipment became apparent. In China, the key design technology of wind turbines still relies on Europe and the United States. The testing and certification system for wind turbines is still not perfect. Under the experience of wind farms lacking long-term operation and maintenance, the quality of wind turbines in China has already begun.

On January 24, 2010, the Dongfeng Blower collapsed and was considered the first blower accident in 2010. Subsequently, the collapse of wind turbines such as Huarui continued to emerge, and almost none of the domestic manufacturers of complete machineries survived. Problems with fan quality also include fan blades, broken spindles, motor fires, damaged gearboxes, control failures, and crashes.

In general, wind turbines have only entered the true test period for the quality of complete machines and components after they have been put into operation for 5 years. Most of the wind turbines in our country have been installed in the last two or three years. Therefore, the next few years will become a test for Chinese wind turbine equipment. The critical period of quality.

From rapid development to healthy development In the past 2010, with the rapid development of the wind power industry, wind power companies in China have become more rational from the blind pursuit of “wind”. Looking into the future, the wind power industry in China will shift from rapid development to healthy development in the global environment where emerging energy is prevalent and China is vigorously promoting the development of new energy industries.

Installed Capacity Maintains Steady Growth According to the current development speed of China's wind power industry, after China’s newly installed wind power equipment jumped to the top in the world in 2009, China’s cumulative installed capacity of wind power will exceed that of the United States, occupying the top position in the world, and becoming the world’s largest wind power market and wind energy. Equipment manufacturing center. It is estimated that in the next 10 years, China's annual installed capacity of new wind power can still be maintained at 15 to 20 million kilowatts.

Offshore wind power will continue to be favored Although offshore wind power is limited by the difficulty of developing technology and high investment costs, it is rich in offshore wind energy resources, free of land restrictions, long hours of use, high wind speeds, persistent wind resources, and unit generating capacity. The advantages of high vision, low noise, and noise will continue to attract people's attention, but they will certainly face many challenges in terms of technology and materials.

The trend of large-scale wind turbines does not change As the wind power technology matures and the demand for reducing the cost of wind power generation becomes higher and higher, wind turbine generators are continuously developing to large-scale, and the capacity of wind turbines is increasing. More than two megawatts of onshore wind turbines and more than three megawatts of offshore wind turbines will be the main models for the future market.

The market share of direct-drive fans will increase. Direct-drive wind turbines have saved gearboxes, improved reliability, and become more stable in operation. More domestic wind power companies, represented by Goldwind and Xiangdian, are actively researching and developing. For direct-drive units, it is expected that the market share of direct-drive fans will further expand.

The price of wind turbines has dropped slightly. In the future, the competition in the wind power market in China will remain fierce. In order to win a cake, the price war between wind power companies will continue. However, due to the fact that the current unit price has touched the bottom line of wind power companies, it is difficult to continue falling sharply on the margin of loss. Therefore, it is expected that the price of wind turbines will slightly decrease in the future.

The quality of wind turbines will be put in the first place. Several wind turbine accidents in 2010 have already given people an alarm bell. As a strategic emerging industry, the wind power industry has begun to move into a healthy and steady development track. The quality of wind turbines will surely become an important factor in the future competition in the wind power equipment market. Only the domestic wind power equipment with excellent quality, safety and reliability will support the long-term development of the wind power industry in China. Only the fan products with excellent quality and user trust can survive the fierce market competition. Strict quality control is a must for every wind power company, and it will be the top priority for the development of China's wind power industry.

WTO rules will affect industry development On September 9, 2010, as one of the largest trade union organizations in the United States, the United States Steel Workers Union (USW) traded to the US Trade Representative (USTR) in accordance with section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act 1974. The Office submitted a complaint of 5,800 pages, stating that the Chinese government gave high subsidies to new energy companies to increase the price advantage of wind power and solar energy in China, and affected US employment. At the same time, it accused China of discriminatory restrictions on foreign companies participating in bidding. On October 15, the U.S. trade representative office decided to investigate China's new energy sources. In accordance with established practice, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office plans to complete the relevant investigation within 90 days, which will have a major impact on China’s wind power, solar energy, high-efficiency battery and new energy automotive industries, and involves 154 Chinese new energy companies.

While responding to the US Trade Representative’s investigation and refuting the US’s unfounded and irresponsible actions, all sectors of the government, industry, and enterprises in China need to carefully understand the WTO rules, make in-depth reflections, and actively prepare for war. Actively study relevant international laws and regulations. In formulating policies in the future, we will be more cautious and careful to avoid violating international rules such as the WTO and GPA to maximize the protection of wind power industry interests in China.