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Benefited from the unexpected increase in car sales in July, the recent increase in the automobile segment was significant. Comprehensive research perspectives of various institutions, July is the traditional off-season of the automotive industry, but the "off-season is not light," so with the arrival of the end of the third quarter sales season, the automotive sector is expected to end the adjustment into the rebound pattern.
Recovery of the automotive industry
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's auto production and sales volume exceeded 10 million units in the first half of the year, reaching 10,715,700 units and 10,782,200 units, respectively, year-on-year increases of 12.8% and 12.3%, respectively, faster than expected. According to the first-half performance announcement issued by listed companies in nearly 40 auto industries, the performance of most vehicle companies has greatly increased, with 7 of them increasing by more than 60%.
Judging from the sales and sales report in July, sales figures of several auto companies are relatively optimistic, such as Changan Automobile's sales growth of 30.01%, SAIC Group's growth of 10.11%, Jianghuai Automobile's growth of 7.71%, and GAC Group's growth of 21.55%.
After experiencing a sharp drop in 2011, the Chinese auto market began to stabilize and recover at the end of 2012, and the demand gradually recovered. With the recovery of the industry, the automotive sector is back to investors. In 2013, the auto stocks began to frequently lead gains in the face of tepid market performance in 2012. In the middle of the second quarter, the stock prices of many auto stocks soared. After a certain period of rest, the auto stocks made a comeback again.
According to Wind information, the auto stocks continued to be active and led the industry sector on August 6, with net capital inflows ranking first. At the same time, the auto parts segment continues to rise, and the capital inflow is more obvious. In the concept section, the State Council's meeting promoted the use of official vehicles and buses to promote the use of new energy vehicles. Policies continued to stimulate the new energy vehicle sector to be active and net capital inflows topped the list.
Five factors help strengthen
Based on the research perspectives of Northeast Securities and other institutions, there are five reasons for the recent sharp increase in auto stocks. First, there are many pre-increase companies in auto companies, such as Changan Automobile's pre-increase of 121-138 percent, and Great Wall Motor’s pre-increase of 74%. Jianghuai Automobile increased by 60% in advance, and FAW Cars made a large turnaround in losses. Among the companies that have released half-year results reports or notices, about 70% of them reported that they had made a good shot at the market.
Secondly, the sales figures of automobile stocks in July were more optimistic. In late July, the Federation of Travel Unions had expected to continue to deviate from the economic fundamentals in July, and the retail sales trend was rapid. It is expected that wholesale sales in July will increase by more than 16% year-on-year. Retail sales Will increase by 18% compared to the same period of last year, and the sales data that each company successively discloses in recent days confirmed the unexpectedly growth of car sales in July;
Third, the macroeconomic outlook is gradually stabilizing. From June to July, the macroeconomic fluctuations were large, and the sales performance of car sales was acceptable. Recently, macroeconomic expectations have started to stabilize, residents’ income expectations have been optimistic, and the auto stocks have been stronger;
Fourth, from August to August, it takes only one month from the traditional sales season. Investors gradually began to pay attention to auto stocks and selectively increase their positions in auto stocks, leading to a sharper increase in auto stocks.
In addition, the valuation of the small and medium-sized board of the ChiNext continued to rise, causing the market to generate fear and turning to low-estimated, growth-oriented sectors to avoid risks. At the same time, the number of auto companies’ shares has now been broken or on the verge of breaking the net. At a historic low. According to Wind, among the mainstream auto stocks, SAIC Group PE is only 6.4 times, Jianghuai Automobile 11.4 times, and Yutong Bus 13.20 times. The downside risk is very low.
According to the analysis of Northeast Securities, the auto industry index clearly outperformed the general trend in the first half of the year. With the stabilization of the macroeconomic situation, the market performance of auto stocks in 2013 will be significantly better than that of 2012, maintaining the investment rating of auto stocks “outperformâ€.
Focus on new energy concept
Shanxi Securities said that from the perspective of various segments, SUVs in passenger vehicles continued to grow at a high rate, leading the market bright spot; commercial vehicles recovered significantly in the first half of the year, demand for heavy trucks improved significantly, and the second half of the year is expected to be weaker than the first half of the year. Buses continue to maintain rapid Growth will enter the traditional peak season in September and demand will pick up. For individual stocks, there are still a number of catalysts for stock prices: the performance of mid-year reports is expected to be good, demand for SUVs is still strong, and the concept of new energy has always been a hot spot in the market.
Cheung Kong Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in the passenger car industry and automotive energy-saving and emission reduction technologies. It believes that the passenger car industry will have no shortage of demand for the whole year, and at the same time, it will welcome industry opportunities in the industry's weakest time. Trend-oriented company Changan Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile, a reversal trend company, and Great Wall Motor with long-term growth capability. The topics recommended in the theme of energy conservation and emission reduction benefit from the improvement of the industry and benefit from the upgrade of the environment, which has given birth to new market opportunities, such as GAC Group, Weifu Hi-Tech, and Yutong Bus.
Southwest Securities reminded investors to pay attention to possible economic risks such as the impact of the economic downturn on car purchases, the slowdown in the auto market, and the introduction of purchase restriction policies.