The rise of electric vehicles, fuel engines, will disappear?

In the car market in recent years, it can be said that the rivers and lakes have changed, traditional car manufacturers have occupied the status of rivers and lakes for many years, and they have cultivated a unique school, and there is no meaning to retreat from the rivers and lakes. With Tesla launching pure electric vehicles, the rivers and lakes will be added. Variety. With the use of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, pure electric and hydrogen power technologies, people feel that new energy is bound to be the core of the future, so some people think that traditional engines will be abandoned, for traditional engines is " Winter is coming."

Text: First of all, the view that it will disappear will be somewhat biased, and some foreign R&D centers believe that this era is not "the winter is approaching" but "the era of internal combustion engines is coming."

Traditional engine continues to force

If you look at the traditional engine, you will find that in the near future, traditional manufacturers not only did not give up research and development, but also produced a lot of new engines. For example, companies such as Lectra, Mazda, and General Motors have developed new technologies for small-displacement engines. Fuel efficiency has been improved by at least 20% compared with the past. Even if it is a relatively irregular start and stop, the traditional engine also has the advantage of fuel consumption, and there will still be greater potential.

Although we have seen that the Chinese government is encouraging the development of new energy sources such as PHEVs and EVs, and wants to rapidly increase the market share of Xingya vehicles through government subsidies, it is not difficult to see that the government’s active guidance has not Great role, and in the global market, if the subsidies are liberalized, the development of the global market is not just what consumers want.

Improve thermal efficiency and lightweight design

Looking at the entire automobile market, as well as the economics of using the car, the fuel consumption has increased by 8.0% in the past decade, indicating that the fuel is more effective, which also represents the progress of the engine and the reduction of exhaust emissions, and the discharge temperature. reduce. Moreover, the technology developed by the automobile manufacturer can greatly improve the fuel efficiency of the engine, and can also greatly reduce the temperature of the exhaust pipe and the engine cylinder wall, which means that the fuel efficiency of the engine after the technical update is improved can meet the needs of the vehicle. Kinetic energy needs.

In the traditional power, including the technology used by the respective manufacturers of GM, Lectra and Mazda, the high compression ratio has reached the same fuel efficiency as the light mix, and now the 3-cylinder-based engine is quietly rising. It is well understood that the reason why new energy vehicles can rise is largely due to severe environmental problems, so manufacturers will continue to develop and update small displacement engines.

In Europe, the engine development projects of mainstream mainframe factories are shrinking in a large amount, but this is not a recent incident but started four or five years ago, not because the engine was quickly killed by electric vehicles.

Many OEMs have a mature range of engine products, ranging from 1.x to 2.0 small displacement lightweight products to large displacement machines of 3.0 or above, and the same displacement engines have also developed discriminative Different power training versions. So there is really no need for major changes in the short term.

The main engine factory research and development is also the input-output ratio, the engine itself has thermal efficiency limits, and the mature product output and investment ratio is already very low. This is also why the R&D investment of the main engine plant in the powertrain is mostly in the gearbox and the hybrid direction, because the same R&D investment can see a significant improvement in fuel consumption, power and drivability in the short term.

Internal combustion engine technology still has great potential

Honorary Chairman of the China Internal Combustion Engine Society, Academician Su Wanhua of the Chinese Academy of Engineering also said that the energy density is high. Now the power of the passenger car can reach 150Kw/L in the laboratory, the internal combustion engine has the highest thermal efficiency, and the gasoline engine can reach 45%. It is not the highest gasoline technology. It and the latest ultra-supercritical are power generation systems. The current two methods of thermal power generation are the most efficient. One is ultra-supercritical power generation, and the other is IGCC hotspot power generation. Its efficiency is quite high. At about 46%, the thermal efficiency of the diesel engine is close to 50%, which is very fast.

Moreover, the internal combustion engine can use flexible fuel, and the technical mature maintenance cost is low.

Small displacement turbo will be the main force

Now manufacturers' small displacement and light weight can be realized, with small displacement, high performance and high efficiency. Therefore, the development of small displacement turbocharged engine will be the main force of the manufacturer, which further proves that the traditional automobile engine does not. It will decline or disappear due to the rise of new energy vehicles. BMW, GM and Peugeot have entered the ranks of three-cylinder engines. Peugeot replaced the previous 1.6-liter four-cylinder engine with a 1.2T three-cylinder engine, while BMW replaced the previous 1.6T four-cylinder engine with a 1.5T three-cylinder engine. GM replaced the previous 1.5L and 1.4T two four-cylinder engines on the 2018 New Yinglang with 1.0T and 1.3T two three-cylinder engines.

On the power and NVH, the small displacement three-cylinder engine is already very superior. Although the current discussion is relatively large, it will be the main force of follow-up according to the manufacturer's approach.

to sum up:

New energy vehicles have the advantages and advantages of new energy vehicles, but the technical bottlenecks of the immature after-sales system and the products themselves may not be mainstream. From the current results, the traditional manufacturers such as Lectra, General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen are updating their own small-displacement engine technology, and they are also constantly promoting the use of the ground. It is not difficult to see the future development of the traditional engine. It is strong.