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With the international oil price hitting new highs, while the domestic refined oil price has been raised, the curtain of a new round of energy price system reform is also being opened. Recently, the News Weekly from the National Bureau of Energy has learned from the national energy authority that a series of energy pricing reforms have basically been prepared and will be launched as soon as the time is ripe. It has been revealed that one of the main signs of the maturity of the time is the stabilization of the macro economy under the slowing CPI increase.
The correspondent also learned that the adjustment of the price of oil and electricity is not only a premeditated premeditated social rumors but a passive response. Zhou Dadi, director of the Energy Development Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told Newsweek that "in fact, the reason why we chose such a CPI to remain at a high level is to adjust the price of oil and electricity. It can be said that it is a last resort." Passivity has strengthened the determination of the decision-makers to push forward energy price reform as soon as possible.
Price distortions are difficult to sustain Xu Kunlin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Department, pointed out recently that following the adjustment of refined oil prices in November last year, oil prices in the international market continued to rise, especially since February this year, which has led to an increase in the country's refined oil prices and crude oil prices. The contradiction of price inversion has become increasingly prominent. As nearly half of China's crude oil consumption is imported, the production losses of refinery companies have increased, resulting in the suspension of production and semi-discontinuation of some refineries, especially local refineries, and affecting the supply of refined oil products.
At the same time, the situation of the oil companies also made the government very worried. Top executives of the two major oil groups repeatedly said publicly that their losses were serious, and their first-quarter earnings announcements also confirmed this statement. Zhou Fengqi, a senior adviser to the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told the reporter: "Whatever the nature of the company, if it is faced with more production and more losses, its production positivity can be imagined."
Zhou Dadi was even more direct. “Actually, the phenomenon of “oil shortage†from the south of the beginning of the year to the previous round of Beijing’s refueling phenomenon shows that the price distortion caused by 'upside down' has reached a point where it is unsustainable. Further increasing the subsidy is neither capable nor reasonable."
"In the final analysis, the shortage of domestic refined oil market is not caused by resource constraints, but is caused by a distorted refined oil price system. The refined oil price system will not be reformed in a single day, and it will be difficult to completely change the domestic oil supply crisis." A person in the industry told the correspondent that "China's energy price reform is already imminent."
In fact, as early as the end of last year, the market had already expected that the country would reform the refined oil pricing mechanism to change the inverted oil price situation. However, the relevant government departments are concerned that if the CPI goes up all the way, raising the retail price of refined oil will cause a chain reaction and thus delaying action.
“According to the impact of the freezing rain and snowstorms in southern China and the recent Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan this year, the demand for oil products has greatly increased, the supply has been affected, and the demand for agricultural diesel has increased after entering the summer. The price adjustment is 'treating the symptoms' and 'treating the roots' will also require energy price reforms." One respondent told the News Weekly.
Create a social environment to change prices "Because energy is a strategic resource, it is related to the lifeline of the country's economy, and it is often triggered by the whole body, which will have a greater impact on downstream products. The reform of the country in this area is always very cautious. And this The secondary price increase, the reason why the country is full of confidence in the situation after the increase, lies in the long-term strategy.†During the interview, many experts believe that through the price adjustment, on the one hand to ease the pressure on supply, on the other hand also focus on the next step There are at least two deep positive meanings in the price reform to build a social environment.
First, accelerating the transformation of industrial upgrading and economic growth methods is conducive to the construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society. Wang Yiming, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told Newsweek that since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of domestic high-energy-consuming enterprises has brought unprecedented challenges to China’s environmental pressure. “The low resource prices in China cannot be timely and fully realized. Reflecting the market supply and demand and the scarcity of resources, many high-energy-consuming enterprises lack the power to reduce energy consumption, which has intensified the over-exploitation of resources, excessive demand and excessive waste, and also caused severe damage to our living environment. It is very difficult for us to build a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society without rationalizing the resource pricing mechanism for resources."
Zhou Dadi also stated that for a long time, many enterprises in China have increased investment and increased consumption as the driving force for the further development of enterprises, and lacking interest in increasing technological content and accelerating industrial upgrading. “A very important reason is energy including energy. The price of resource products is too low. The basic role of market mechanisms in the allocation of resources is misguided due to price distortions, and the resulting economic growth pattern is also extensive, and the efficiency of resource output is naturally low.â€
Second, it is conducive to forming a correct consumption concept in the entire society. Zhou Dadi believes that Chinese society has become accustomed to low-cost energy. Many people have insufficient vigilance for non-renewable energy, and they do not have sufficient understanding of the environmental damage caused by energy consumption. For example, they don’t turn off the lights, they don’t tighten the taps, The fact that air conditioners are running too low is a very important reason why people think they are wasting because of low energy prices."
In this sense, rationalizing prices is not an end but a means. During the interview, some experts emphasized that “it is necessary to guide the whole society to form the correct consumption concept through reasonable prices, and to advocate the value orientation of energy conservation and environmental protection. We must pay attention to building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society. at this point."
“Energy prices also reflect the scarcity of energy resources, and too low prices are obviously contrary to this.†Zhou Fengqi told this reporter that to change this situation, price leverage is undoubtedly the best means. Propaganda and education are of limited use. It is difficult to operate with laws and regulations. Only the price is the most effective and reliable means. The 'plastic limit order' is a successful example."
Regarding the issue of raising CPIs that many people are worried about, Zhou Dadi believes that price adjustment makes many people think of CPI, which is reasonable. “But in the long run, we should realize that if it is not adjusted, it will make it difficult for society and economy. The negative impact of eradication," he said by way of example. "Like the transportation industry, it would have taken two days to complete the work that could have been completed in one day. One day was waiting for the queue to refuel. Is the economic loss here small?"
The reforms need to steadily promote “China’s market-oriented reforms. Commodities and services are at the forefront. Currently, marketization has basically been implemented, and the market-based mechanism for production factors and resource products has not been fully formed.†In the eyes of experts, China The marketization process of energy prices has gone too slowly. Even after the adjustment of the price of electricity and electricity, compared with similar international prices, China’s energy prices are still much lower. Today, with the globalization of the economy, it is obviously impractical to maintain this pattern of “price deflation†for a long time.
However, Wang Yiming believes that a sound pace of reform is more in line with China's national conditions than "one step." "Our goal has been emphasized many times, that is, we must gradually establish a price formation mechanism that reflects the degree of resource scarcity, market supply and demand, and environmental costs." The key guiding ideology is to actively and steadily push forward the reform of energy prices in the context of properly handling the relationship between different interest groups and fully considering the affordability of all aspects of society.
Wang Yiming pointed out that even if it is already basically a market-oriented commodity and service market, its pricing mechanism has experienced a path from "dual track system" to "gradual release" to "complete release". "And for oil like this The release of strategic resources should be more cautious and it must be a gradual process.†In his view, the reform of resource products represented by energy resources will last at least ten years or more.
Experts interviewed pointed out that the reform of energy prices needs to be advanced on the basis of summing up historical experience. In particular, it is necessary to avoid the lessons of “price cuts†in 1988 and to prevent rashness and hasty reforms causing high inflation and even social turmoil.
"Not to mention, today's oil is not just an energy product, but it has evolved into a financial product." Wang Yiming further said, "After the US subprime mortgage crisis broke out, a large amount of international hot money entered the oil industry. In the international commodity trading market, oil has become the subject of speculation, and its price does not really reflect the fundamentals of demand. If we rashly connect international oil prices at this time will have a huge impact on the national economy, it is obviously not desirable.â€
Zhou Dadi also believes that “because we owe too much debt, the problem will become very complicated if it is put in place once.†Perhaps because of this consideration, on June 8, Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and Director of Energy Zhang Guobao was in Japan. When attending the meeting of the energy ministers of the five countries, Aomori stated clearly that "China's domestic refined oil prices are also planned to be in line with international standards, but they must be suspended."
Actively preparing for the price reform, Zhou Fengqi believes that “at present, although we have achieved a lot of achievements, the energy pricing aspect still appears to be more confusing and there is still a long way to go.†Wang Yiming believes that the reform of the energy price mechanism and It is not just the issue of price, but also the reform of related mechanisms in the entire energy sector. It involves the reform of the national income distribution system. It needs further comprehensive measures and favorable opportunities.
According to the opinions of the experts, energy price reforms should make breakthroughs in the following areas.
First of all, we must straighten out the relationship between the government and the market. “Ignore the border between the government and the market, do not change the way the government allocates resources directly, and do not abandon the administrative management methods. Grasping macro and micro, it is very difficult to truly rely on the market for pricing,†said Wang Yiming.
Second, while adhering to the direction of market-oriented reforms, we must pay attention to the basis of price operation. “Let's open the price, must be based on accurate market signals and perfect market functions. If the basis for the effective operation of the market is not yet established, the results of the market operation will be difficult to meet people's expectations.†Wang Yiming pointed out that the Western developed countries in the world in terms of energy pricing It is not entirely determined by the market. The government also controls it to a certain extent. The reason is that the market has also failed.
In addition, some experts also stated that only in a fully competitive market, price marketization will form a positive feedback for the corresponding production supply. In the case of keeping the monopoly system of the resource industry basically unchanged, only the administrative control will be eliminated and the price of resources alone will be raised. The result will be very dangerous. Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately relax market access conditions and increase market competitiveness.
Third, we must be more proactive in the timing of price adjustments. “We used to have some better opportunities than now to adjust prices, but due to a variety of reasons, we were forced to increase the price of energy when inflation pressure is so high.†Zhou Fengqi believes that “has been indecisive. Now, when we adjust the price of energy, we always seem to be passive.†He took the fuel tax as an example. “After eight years of discussion, it was said that choosing the right machine has not been implemented. Can we say that there is no good opportunity in eight years?†The earth also has similar views. “Sometimes, the process of adjusting our prices feels too thoughtful.â€
Fourth, the price management system needs to be further improved. “The current National Energy Administration is only a sub-ministerial agency within the National Development and Reform Commission. The original idea of ​​establishing a higher-level management organization was not realized. It has brought some inconvenience to the price management from the coordination ability and authority.†People told this reporter.
The severe energy market environment is often an opportunity to harmonize the interests of various parties and promote breakthroughs in energy price reform.