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(Reporter Wang Canbin) The automotive industry is once again facing a new test - that is, the fuel tax, unlike the previous thunderstorms, the difference is whether it is the passenger car joint conference or the Ministry of Finance. According to the news, the fuel tax is very likely to begin in March next year. Cars, the largest consumer of fuel, face the greatest pressure. The implementation of fuel tax will affect the performance of related listed companies. It is bad for passenger car companies.
Judging from the situation of the previous week, many passenger car stocks fell by more than 20% due to the impact of the broader market. Even the leading Shanghai autos could not be avoided, and Weichai Power had strong resilience. Since the introduction of the fuel tax is imminent, auto stocks will also be affected in the short term and it is difficult to regroup.
Automotive oil accounts for 80% of total gasoline consumption
The fuel tax that has been brewing for 10 years has repeatedly been postponed due to rising oil prices, and it is somewhat puzzling to force fuel taxes on the international oil price when it hits a record high of US$90/barrel. Analysts believe that this is also an inevitable choice for the country to push forward the new energy-saving and emission reduction policy.
Since China’s auto industry has grown at an average annual rate of over 17% since 1992, it is expected that auto production and sales in 2007 will exceed 8.5 million vehicles, and China has become the world’s third largest automobile producer and second largest consumer of automobiles. At this rate, it is expected that by 2015 at the latest, China's auto production and sales will reach 15 million vehicles, which will exceed the United States as the world’s largest automobile production and sales country. Despite the rapid development of the auto industry, there is still a bad phenomenon in the consumer market, that is, everyone is pursuing large displacement. This year, the SUV has become the fastest growing segment of passenger cars, and the proportion of small-displacement cars. Decline continues. This is something the relevant government departments do not want to see.
Statistics show that the automotive industry consumes 80% of all gasoline (about 45 million tons/year) and 30% of all diesel fuel (about 40 million tons/year), which has become one of the major sources of energy consumption and sewerage. Therefore, the automotive industry shoulders a great deal of responsibility in the future of energy-saving and emission reduction. Since the market hasn’t changed the model’s “great happinessâ€, adjusting the fuel tax price lever may help change this habit.
Passenger cars: Small-displacement cars benefit
What will happen if we implement the fuel tax system nationwide in the future? First, assuming that: after implementing the fuel tax, only considering that the road maintenance fee will not be levied, the owners of the toll-crossing bridge tolls, parking fees and vehicle purchase fees will still be carried out according to the original; secondly, analysis and comparison will be made on passenger cars and commercial vehicles respectively. . At present, the tax rate cannot be determined, but the tax rate may be greater than 30% in Hainan Province. The research report released by Guotai Junan Securities Company stated that the tax rate of fuel tax may be adjusted to 80%.
Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. recently issued a special research report that said it took 1.6 to 1.8 liters of so-called "gold displacement" models as its representative, and in accordance with the general conditions of use: an average of 1,000 kilometers per month, an average of 9 liters of gasoline consumption per 100 kilometers, 7.5 liters of diesel, 220 yuan per month per vehicle maintenance.
If the fuel tax rate is set at 80% or 100%, in other words, what will happen if the price of oil rises by 80% to 100% on the existing basis? Although consumers can not pay road maintenance fees, etc., but its actual car spending will therefore increase by 10% to 35%, if the base oil prices further rise, then the increase in consumer car spending will exceed 40%. Consumers need to reduce their spending on vehicles. Under the present circumstances, it is wise to choose small-displacement, economical vehicles. Even if the price of fuel rises by another 10%, the increase in consumer spending will not exceed 8.5. %.
Currently, in the automotive sector, there are not many listed companies for passenger cars, mainly Shanghai Automotive, Changan Automobile, FAW Car, Haima Shares, FAW Xiali and so on.
Commercial Vehicles: Fuel Tax Costs Can Be Passed
Since commercial vehicles are basically used as means of production, they belong to the category of investment products. Basically, they are diesel vehicles whether they are cargo vehicles or large and medium-sized passenger vehicles. Therefore, 0# diesel is used for all models. According to the general conditions of use, the statistics made by Guotai Junan indicate that: light vehicles (represented by 2 tons), with an average of 4,000 kilometers per month, with an average fuel consumption of 12 liters per 100 kilometers, The monthly road maintenance fee is RMB 220/ton per vehicle; medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (represented by 10 tons) average 8,000 kilometers per month; the average fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is 18 liters; the monthly road maintenance fee is RMB 220/ton per vehicle; (Represented by 20 tons), an average of 10,000 kilometers per month, an average fuel consumption of 22 liters per 100 kilometers, and a monthly maintenance fee of less than 10 tons per ton of 220 yuan per ton, exceeding 110 yuan per ton.
Similarly, through simple calculations, it can be seen that for all light commercial vehicle users, as long as the fuel tax rate exceeds 20%, the monthly car expenditure will show an increasing trend, and the rate will vary with different tax rates. The increase in spending will range from 8.5% to 65%. If the base oil price rises further by 10% to 20%, the spending of almost all models will increase, reaching a maximum of nearly 70%. The only way to save money at this time is to reduce the frequency of use. However, taking into account the characteristics of investment vehicles for commercial vehicles, users can shift some of their spending upwards by cost. As a result, the increase in car expenses for commercial vehicle users is not as high as it is estimated.
Among the automotive sector, there are many commercial vehicle listed companies, including China National Heavy Duty Truck, Foton Motor, Jiangling Motors, JAC, Dongfeng Motor, Yutong Bus, Jinlong Automobile, Zhongtong Bus, and Ankai Bus.